Serhii Rak vs Ivan Romaniak 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Serhii Rak

Home

1.44

At publish

Lost last 7

Form at publish

1–9Last 10Lost last 7

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1191186111311––

Ivan Romaniak

Away

2.63

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched: 68.9% is still 68.9%

Graded at full time

Serhii Rak to win

68.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Ivan Romaniak below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 13-11

Point 80 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Serhii Rak at 68.9%

80 points played in total.

H2H Serhii Rak 64–28 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 28 of their 92 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Rak

Rak 1.44/Romaniak 2.63

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

68.9%

Rak · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Rak won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 13:49

68.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444

short by 0.4pp

69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.44 (65%)

Rak

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

64-28 in 92

Rak

Correct

gap of 36 in 92, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Rak 1847 vs Romaniak 1662

Rak

Correct

both rated, 185 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Rak 0% vs Romaniak 60%

Romaniak

Wrong

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Rak 10% vs Romaniak 50%

Romaniak

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Rak -7 · Romaniak -1

Rak

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Rak) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Romaniak: form 60%, the price implies 38%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsRak 1.444 / Romaniak 2.625

Signal prob.69% / 31%

Edge (Rak)-0.4pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeRak5wins

AwayRomaniak5wins

5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeRak100%4 of 4

AwayRomaniak83.3%5 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Rak4Romaniak6n = 10Romaniak took 6 of 10

S2Rak5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly

S3Rak8Romaniak2n = 10Rak took 8 of 10

S4Rak2Romaniak3n = 5Romaniak took 3 of 5

S5Rak2Romaniak3n = 5Romaniak took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home330%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricRakRomaniakRak − RomaniakBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.037.4+0.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricRakRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime556 / 1003 vs 264 / 59055.4%44.8%556 / 1003 vs 264 / 590Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.1per match

Setka Cup · #13281502

Rak1.44

10%won 1 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 7

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite67% won 255 of 383

Up 2–0, closes it94% 128 of 136

Up 1–0, closes it83% 185 of 222

Romaniak2.63

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog41% won 115 of 280

Down 0–1, comes back25% 42 of 168

Down 0–2, comes back11% 12 of 105

Serhii Rak vs Ivan Romaniak 3-1 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Serhii Rak vs Ivan Romaniak 3-1 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.