TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasily Verbyany vs Serhii Rak 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411116112116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:11 and never touched: 79.1% is still 79.1%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
79.1%
79.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 62 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Vasily Verbyany at 79.1%
62 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 3–0 Serhii Rak Serhii Rak has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 12h before this match
Verbyany beat Rak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1179.1%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 4.2pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Verbyany
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Verbyany
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 1964 vs Rak 1904
Verbyany
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 60% vs Rak 20%
Verbyany
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 60% vs Rak 40%
Verbyany
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany +1 · Rak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Verbyany) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 1.20 / Rak 4.333
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Verbyany)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266232
Verbyany1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 59 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it77% 47 of 61
Rak4.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 42 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVerbyany3wins
AwayRak0wins
Verbyany leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany2Rak1n = 3Verbyany took 2 of 3
S2Verbyany2Rak1n = 3Verbyany took 2 of 3
S3Verbyany3Rak0n = 3Verbyany took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVerbyanyRakV − RBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.026.3+11.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyRakBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 822 vs 556 / 99742.2%55.8%347 / 822 vs 556 / 997Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyVerbyany 1.20/Rak 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.1%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 8 · 17:15V. Verbyany4181111113S. Rak27118621
WOct 8 · 12:55V. Verbyany3911611113S. Rak31811481
WOct 6 · 09:35V. Verbyany341111123S. Rak2138100
V. Verbyany10
WOct 8 · 17:15S. Rak4.50118621V. Verbyany1.1781111113LOct 8 · 16:25V. Verbyany2.6368111192N. Danyliuk1.44111196113LOct 8 · 15:25V. Verbyany2.0031380A. Molochko1.731115113WOct 8 · 13:55V. Verbyany1.67211119113B. Kohut2.1011981132WOct 8 · 12:55V. Verbyany1.2511611113S. Rak3.75811481WOct 6 · 10:35N. Danyliuk1.5341181172V. Verbyany2.38118117113WOct 6 · 09:35V. Verbyany1.361111123S. Rak3.0038100LOct 6 · 08:35V. Verbyany1.809670D. Zeniuk1.911111113WOct 6 · 07:05V. Verbyany1.7311115113B. Kohut2.00591171LOct 6 · 05:05V. Verbyany2.0011591182A. Molochko1.73911119113
S. Rak10
LOct 9 · 06:25S. Rak2.63117991D. Zeniuk1.4451111113LOct 8 · 17:15S. Rak4.50118621V. Verbyany1.1781111113WOct 8 · 15:55B. Kohut1.578121111102S. Rak2.25111478123LOct 8 · 14:25A. Molochko1.441111113S. Rak2.639830LOct 8 · 12:55V. Verbyany1.2511611113S. Rak3.75811481LOct 8 · 11:55N. Danyliuk1.401112113S. Rak2.7561040WOct 6 · 11:35S. Rak3.001111113A. Molochko1.364380LOct 6 · 09:35V. Verbyany1.361111123S. Rak3.0038100WOct 6 · 07:35N. Danyliuk1.20711981S. Rak4.3311811113LOct 6 · 06:35S. Rak2.63115941D. Zeniuk1.4461111113
Upcoming Matches
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