TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Nazar Danyliuk vs Serhii Rak 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210114––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:40 and never touched: 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Danyliuk above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 54 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 69.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Danyliuk 0–1 Serhii Rak Nazar Danyliuk has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4069.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Danyliuk 2133 vs Rak 1936
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 197 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danyliuk 40% vs Rak 60%
Rak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danyliuk 70% vs Rak 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Danyliuk -1 · Rak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Danyliuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanyliuk 1.40 / Rak 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Danyliuk)-2.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261307
Danyliuk1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 186 of 289
Up 2–0, closes it95% 93 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it81% 135 of 166
Rak2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog31% won 41 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDanyliuk0wins
AwayRak1wins
Rak leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDanyliukRakD − RBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match35.041.0−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanyliukRakBasisWin rate · lifetime581 / 949 vs 555 / 99261.2%56%581 / 949 vs 555 / 992Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukDanyliuk 1.40/Rak 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Danyliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 6 · 07:35N. Danyliuk35711981S. Rak4111811113
N. Danyliuk10
LOct 6 · 10:35N. Danyliuk1.5341181172V. Verbyany2.38118117113WOct 6 · 09:05N. Danyliuk1.30912118113B. Kohut3.40111081192LOct 6 · 07:35N. Danyliuk1.20711981S. Rak4.3311811113WOct 6 · 06:05N. Danyliuk1.57111177113A. Molochko2.2566111172LOct 6 · 04:35N. Danyliuk1.3671481132D. Zeniuk3.001112117113WOct 5 · 19:05A. Zeniuk7.00114471N. Danyliuk1.0861111113WOct 5 · 17:35N. Danyliuk1.5010111111113V. Verbyany2.5012135992WOct 5 · 15:35A. Molochko2.10131181262N. Danyliuk1.671141114113WOct 5 · 13:35D. Zeniuk2.204980N. Danyliuk1.611111113WOct 5 · 12:35B. Kohut3.2511971172N. Danyliuk1.33611119113
S. Rak10
WOct 6 · 11:35S. Rak3.001111113A. Molochko1.364380LOct 6 · 09:35V. Verbyany1.361111123S. Rak3.0038100WOct 6 · 07:35N. Danyliuk1.20711981S. Rak4.3311811113LOct 6 · 06:35S. Rak2.63115941D. Zeniuk1.4461111113WOct 6 · 05:35B. Kohut1.3341180S. Rak3.251113113WOct 5 · 18:55S. Rak1.401111113I. Romaniak2.754970WOct 5 · 16:55I. Kozachuk2.635540S. Rak1.441111113WOct 5 · 14:55D. Shcherbak2.101188111S. Rak1.6741111133WOct 5 · 13:55S. Rak1.111111143O. Napirko6.0067120LOct 5 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.50251111113S. Rak2.5011118832
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