TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anton Molochko vs Serhii Rak 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131131210––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:19 and never touched: 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeAnton Molochko to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 50 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Anton Molochko at 75.9%
50 points played in total.
H2H Anton Molochko 0–1 Serhii Rak Anton Molochko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1975.9%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 1.9pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Molochko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Molochko 2012 vs Rak 1881
Molochko
Correct
both rated, 131 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molochko 80% vs Rak 20%
Molochko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molochko 70% vs Rak 20%
Molochko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molochko +2 · Rak -4
Rak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% · Strong (leans Molochko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolochko 1.285 / Rak 3.50
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Molochko)-1.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266024
Molochko1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 137 of 225
Up 2–0, closes it97% 64 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it84% 100 of 119
Rak3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 42 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMolochko0wins
AwayRak1wins
Rak leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricMolochkoRakM − RBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match15.033.0−18.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolochkoRakBasisWin rate · lifetime520 / 905 vs 556 / 100057.5%55.6%520 / 905 vs 556 / 1000Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MolochkoMolochko 1.28/Rak 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.9%
Molochko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Molochko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 6 · 11:35A. Molochko154380S. Rak331111113
A. Molochko10
WOct 9 · 08:25A. Molochko2.20101111113D. Zeniuk1.61129791WOct 9 · 06:55A. Molochko1.73111298113V. Verbyany2.00610111182LOct 9 · 04:55A. Molochko1.443370B. Kohut2.631111113WOct 8 · 17:44A. Molochko2.0011711113N. Danyliuk1.73811791WOct 8 · 15:25V. Verbyany2.0031380A. Molochko1.731115113WOct 8 · 14:25A. Molochko1.441111113S. Rak2.639830WOct 8 · 13:25N. Danyliuk1.531210813102A. Molochko2.3810121111123WOct 8 · 12:25A. Molochko1.5371411143B. Kohut2.3811127121LOct 6 · 11:35S. Rak3.001111113A. Molochko1.364380LOct 6 · 10:05A. Molochko2.009450D. Zeniuk1.731111113
S. Rak10
LOct 9 · 07:25N. Danyliuk1.2081111113S. Rak4.33115981LOct 9 · 06:25S. Rak2.63117991D. Zeniuk1.4451111113LOct 9 · 05:25V. Verbyany1.2041111113S. Rak4.33116261LOct 8 · 17:15S. Rak4.50118621V. Verbyany1.1781111113WOct 8 · 15:55B. Kohut1.578121111102S. Rak2.25111478123LOct 8 · 14:25A. Molochko1.441111113S. Rak2.639830LOct 8 · 12:55V. Verbyany1.2511611113S. Rak3.75811481LOct 8 · 11:55N. Danyliuk1.401112113S. Rak2.7561040WOct 6 · 11:35S. Rak3.001111113A. Molochko1.364380LOct 6 · 09:35V. Verbyany1.361111123S. Rak3.0038100
Upcoming Matches
A. Molochko
Nothing scheduled
S. Rak
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