TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Cizek vs Tomas Kindl 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 54 - H4 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13111189111210––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Cizek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Tomas Kindl below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 85 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Ales Cizek at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 9–11 Tomas Kindl Ales Cizek has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1254.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kindl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Kindl
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1573 vs Kindl 1494
Cizek
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 80% vs Kindl 20%
Cizek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 60% vs Kindl 30%
Cizek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek +4 · Kindl +1
Cizek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Cizek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kindl form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.833 / Kindl 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cizek)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13278453
Cizek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kindl1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCizek4wins
AwayKindl6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKindl leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizek66.7%4 of 6
AwayKindl100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek6Kindl4n = 10Cizek took 6 of 10
S2Cizek6Kindl4n = 10Cizek took 6 of 10
S3Cizek5Kindl5n = 10split evenly
S4Cizek1Kindl7n = 8Kindl took 7 of 8
S5Cizek2Kindl2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCizekKindlC − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.139.7−0.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekKindlBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 519 vs 232 / 47248%49.2%249 / 519 vs 232 / 472Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.741.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.83/Kindl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek361112491T. Kindl4481411113
LSep 1 · 09:40A. Cizek571111139132T. Kindl46141511153
LAug 13 · 20:15A. Cizek30811831T. Kindl4111811113
WAug 2 · 14:45A. Cizek331111113T. Kindl185580
WAug 1 · 18:10A. Cizek45126115113T. Kindl45101161172
WAug 1 · 15:40A. Cizek371112143T. Kindl25310120
LJul 19 · 20:10A. Cizek3521151252T. Kindl521191110113
LJul 4 · 17:45A. Cizek31571181T. Kindl3611113113
WJul 1 · 06:40A. Cizek47111185123T. Kindl42281111102
LJun 17 · 18:10A. Cizek4051311111T. Kindl4811159133
A. Cizek10
WOct 11 · 18:45J. Travnicek1.736911101A. Cizek2.0011119123WOct 11 · 18:15D. Vitasek1.831131081A. Cizek1.8361112113WOct 10 · 20:44A. Cizek1.83911118113A. Kanak1.8311591192WOct 10 · 19:45A. Cizek2.00121676113K. Kleprlik1.731014111192LOct 10 · 18:45A. Cizek1.6769100D. Vitasek2.101111123WOct 10 · 17:45A. Cizek2.201111113A. Kanak1.619760WOct 4 · 20:40D. Branny1.73411661A. Cizek2.0011711113LOct 4 · 19:40I. Heuman1.738111011113A. Cizek2.0011812992LOct 4 · 19:10D. Branny1.571113113A. Cizek2.2571170LOct 4 · 18:10A. Cizek1.7398121182R. Solle2.001111109113
T. Kindl10
WOct 11 · 19:15T. Kindl1.9111411113D. Vitasek1.80811821LOct 11 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.67111113123T. Kindl2.109915101LOct 7 · 12:48L. Kantor1.5091111163T. Kindl2.501149141LOct 7 · 11:45R. Benes1.25101111113T. Kindl3.75128791LOct 7 · 11:15L. Dzida1.9115911113T. Kindl1.801311491LOct 7 · 10:15T. Kindl1.67115561L. Kantor2.1041111113LOct 7 · 09:13L. Kantor1.671211113T. Kindl2.1010630LOct 7 · 07:45T. Kindl1.9111811952L. Kantor1.80411911113WOct 7 · 06:45T. Kindl1.83314611113D. Pawlik1.83111311362WOct 7 · 05:45T. Kindl1.53111296113L. Lasota2.38710111182
Upcoming Matches
A. Cizek
Nothing scheduled
T. Kindl
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