TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Benes vs Tomas Kindl 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012118117119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:44 and never touched: 77.8% is still 77.8%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
77.8%
77.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Tomas Kindl below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Radek Benes at 77.8%
79 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 17–15 Tomas Kindl Tomas Kindl has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4477.8%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 2.2pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-15 in 32
Benes
Correct
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1671 vs Kindl 1503
Benes
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 60% vs Kindl 20%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 70% vs Kindl 50%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -1 · Kindl -4
Kindl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.25 / Kindl 3.75
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Benes)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13256671
Benes1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 180 of 316
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it76% 121 of 159
Kindl3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 54 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes6wins
AwayKindl4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%3 of 3
AwayKindl57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes3Kindl7n = 10Kindl took 7 of 10
S2Benes4Kindl6n = 10Kindl took 6 of 10
S3Benes6Kindl4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Benes7Kindl1n = 8Benes took 7 of 8
S5Benes2Kindl2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesKindlB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.339.7+0.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesKindlBasisWin rate · lifetime534 / 1019 vs 231 / 46852.4%49.4%534 / 1019 vs 231 / 468Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.941.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.25/Kindl 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 10:10R. Benes45121210113T. Kindl4110101291
WSep 30 · 06:10R. Benes44101111123T. Kindl371296101
LSep 22 · 07:15R. Benes4559111192T. Kindl50111189113
WSep 21 · 11:15R. Benes50119118113T. Kindl4381141192
WSep 17 · 07:15R. Benes45841111113T. Kindl4111116762
LSep 14 · 12:15R. Benes2458110T. Kindl351111133
LSep 7 · 10:40R. Benes228950T. Kindl331111113
WAug 26 · 16:10R. Benes4111118113T. Kindl29491151
LAug 5 · 08:44R. Benes4093111162T. Kindl48111196113
WAug 5 · 06:10R. Benes47121211123T. Kindl4014106101
R. Benes10
LOct 7 · 10:45R. Benes1.5711681182L. Kantor2.25811113113WOct 7 · 09:45R. Benes1.6113174123L. Dzida2.20111511101LOct 5 · 13:15R. Benes1.915980T. Krenek1.801111113WOct 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.80771171R. Benes1.9111118113WOct 5 · 11:15T. Krenek1.73114871R. Benes2.0061111113WOct 5 · 10:15R. Benes1.91111511113M. Moravec1.808131381WOct 5 · 09:25L. Slavik2.0011111061R. Benes1.7313612113WOct 5 · 08:15R. Benes1.911011129113T. Krenek1.80128101192WOct 5 · 06:45B. Mrowetz1.61391481R. Benes2.20111112113LOct 5 · 06:15L. Slavik2.2011111011113R. Benes1.6113412672
T. Kindl10
LOct 7 · 11:15L. Dzida1.9115911113T. Kindl1.801311491LOct 7 · 10:15T. Kindl1.67115561L. Kantor2.1041111113LOct 7 · 09:13L. Kantor1.671211113T. Kindl2.1010630LOct 7 · 07:45T. Kindl1.9111811952L. Kantor1.80411911113WOct 7 · 06:45T. Kindl1.83314611113D. Pawlik1.83111311362WOct 7 · 05:45T. Kindl1.53111296113L. Lasota2.38710111182WOct 6 · 12:44T. Kindl1.449131012123J. Przybyla2.6311111210102LOct 6 · 11:45T. Kindl2.101113581R. Sedlacek1.6781511113WOct 6 · 10:45T. Kindl1.80811711113D. Pawlik1.9111811582WOct 6 · 09:45T. Kindl1.501111113J. Przybyla2.506690
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