TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Benes vs Lukas Kantor 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118611811113811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:41 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Lukas Kantor below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 88 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Radek Benes at 62.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 6–3 Lukas Kantor Lukas Kantor has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4162.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 0.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Benes
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1685 vs Kantor 1569
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 80% vs Kantor 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 80% vs Kantor 50%
Benes
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +1 · Kantor +4
Kantor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kantor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.571 / Kantor 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Benes)-0.8pp
TT Cup · #13256995
Benes1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 180 of 316
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it76% 121 of 159
Kantor2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 59 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBenes6wins
AwayKantor3wins
3 of 9 to a deciderBenes leads 6–3, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes83.3%5 of 6
AwayKantor66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes6Kantor3n = 9Benes took 6 of 9
S2Benes7Kantor2n = 9Benes took 7 of 9
S3Benes3Kantor6n = 9Kantor took 6 of 9
S4Benes5Kantor2n = 7Benes took 5 of 7
S5Benes1Kantor2n = 3Kantor took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricBenesKantorB − KBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match40.036.3+3.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesKantorBasisWin rate · lifetime534 / 1018 vs 198 / 39352.5%50.4%534 / 1018 vs 198 / 393Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.57/Kantor 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kantor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 9 · 12:39R. Benes2891270L. Kantor361114113
WSep 9 · 11:10R. Benes4111118113L. Kantor32691161
WAug 5 · 13:10R. Benes351111133L. Kantor2366110
LAug 5 · 11:10R. Benes51101115692L. Kantor541271311113
WJun 24 · 11:10R. Benes43411611113L. Kantor3611511362
WJun 22 · 05:40R. Benes4413128113L. Kantor3911101171
WMay 13 · 07:10R. Benes3711114113L. Kantor35981171
WApr 17 · 09:40R. Benes3911116113L. Kantor29371181
LMar 16 · 08:40R. Benes4211811572L. Kantor43611411113
R. Benes10
WOct 7 · 09:45R. Benes1.6113174123L. Dzida2.20111511101LOct 5 · 13:15R. Benes1.915980T. Krenek1.801111113WOct 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.80771171R. Benes1.9111118113WOct 5 · 11:15T. Krenek1.73114871R. Benes2.0061111113WOct 5 · 10:15R. Benes1.91111511113M. Moravec1.808131381WOct 5 · 09:25L. Slavik2.0011111061R. Benes1.7313612113WOct 5 · 08:15R. Benes1.911011129113T. Krenek1.80128101192WOct 5 · 06:45B. Mrowetz1.61391481R. Benes2.20111112113LOct 5 · 06:15L. Slavik2.2011111011113R. Benes1.6113412672WOct 4 · 17:15R. Benes2.101113410153D. Velky Jr1.678111112132
L. Kantor10
WOct 7 · 10:15T. Kindl1.67115561L. Kantor2.1041111113WOct 7 · 09:13L. Kantor1.671211113T. Kindl2.1010630WOct 7 · 07:45T. Kindl1.9111811952L. Kantor1.80411911113WOct 7 · 07:15L. Lasota1.8381111592L. Kantor1.83115811113LOct 7 · 06:15L. Kantor2.10118131152D. Pawlik1.67411157113LSep 30 · 12:44L. Kantor2.207990L. Slavik1.611111113LSep 30 · 12:15T. Krenek1.9181111113L. Kantor1.80114351LSep 30 · 11:15L. Kantor2.251011441J. Skvrna1.5712511113WSep 30 · 09:45L. Slavik1.6161141192L. Kantor2.20119117113LSep 30 · 09:14D. Velky Jr1.91114911153L. Kantor1.80911113132
Upcoming Matches
R. Benes
Nothing scheduled
L. Kantor
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