TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Kantor vs Dominik Pawlik 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1148111315117511
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:05 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Kantor above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 96 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Dominik Pawlik at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kantor 10–13 Dominik Pawlik Lukas Kantor has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0554.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kantor 1534 vs Pawlik 1466
Kantor
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kantor 20% vs Pawlik 60%
Pawlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kantor 30% vs Pawlik 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kantor -3 · Pawlik -1
Kantor
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pawlik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kantor form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKantor 2.10 / Pawlik 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pawlik)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13256649
Kantor2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 30) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 59 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Pawlik1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 62 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKantor4wins
AwayPawlik6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKantor57.1%4 of 7
AwayPawlik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kantor7Pawlik3n = 10Kantor took 7 of 10
S2Kantor3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S3Kantor3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S4Kantor5Pawlik3n = 8Kantor took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKantorPawlikK − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.337.6−1.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKantorPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 390 vs 252 / 52250%48.3%195 / 390 vs 252 / 522Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikKantor 2.10/Pawlik 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 06:15L. Kantor48118131152D. Pawlik48411157113
WSep 17 · 11:10L. Kantor3911115123D. Pawlik314611101
LSep 3 · 12:10L. Kantor34861191D. Pawlik4011117113
WSep 3 · 09:08L. Kantor4211911113D. Pawlik34611891
WSep 3 · 07:40L. Kantor4211911113D. Pawlik31611681
WAug 31 · 08:38L. Kantor4011117113D. Pawlik29551181
LAug 31 · 06:45L. Kantor351191141D. Pawlik4271113113
LJul 17 · 09:20L. Kantor2112630D. Pawlik361411113
LJul 17 · 06:40L. Kantor186570D. Pawlik331111113
LJul 6 · 10:40L. Kantor44111311632D. Pawlik526111311113
L. Kantor10
WOct 7 · 07:45T. Kindl1.9111811952L. Kantor1.80411911113WOct 7 · 07:15L. Lasota1.8381111592L. Kantor1.83115811113LSep 30 · 12:44L. Kantor2.207990L. Slavik1.611111113LSep 30 · 12:15T. Krenek1.9181111113L. Kantor1.80114351LSep 30 · 11:15L. Kantor2.251011441J. Skvrna1.5712511113WSep 30 · 09:45L. Slavik1.6161141192L. Kantor2.20119117113LSep 30 · 09:14D. Velky Jr1.91114911153L. Kantor1.80911113132WSep 30 · 08:15T. Krenek1.838117121L. Kantor1.8311311143LSep 30 · 07:15L. Kantor1.8311127632I. Heuman1.838101111113WSep 30 · 05:45D. Velky Jr2.1011911282L. Kantor1.67511611113
D. Pawlik10
LOct 7 · 06:45T. Kindl1.83314611113D. Pawlik1.83111311362LOct 6 · 13:14R. Sedlacek1.80117116113D. Pawlik1.9131191182WOct 6 · 12:15D. Pawlik1.9111119113J. Przybyla1.80761181LOct 6 · 10:45T. Kindl1.80811711113D. Pawlik1.9111811582WOct 6 · 10:15R. Sedlacek1.8011811272D. Pawlik1.918111110113WSep 30 · 08:38T. Kindl1.737111111182D. Pawlik2.00118138203LSep 30 · 08:10T. Kindl1.9113126113D. Pawlik1.8011101161LSep 30 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.2012101171R. Benes1.6114126113LSep 30 · 05:40R. Sedlacek1.8312911113D. Pawlik1.831011871LSep 29 · 13:18A. Cizek1.831111113D. Pawlik1.837560
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