TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Orlowski vs Adam Pavlik · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Starts Oct 11, 06:30Scheduled
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Head to head
6 – 11
All 17 meetings · 35.3%
Last 10 · 3–7Same side
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Both players are 5–5 over their last ten. The difference is the direction: Petr Orlowski arrives off a win, Adam Pavlik off a loss, and the streak is one of the signals the engine reads.
Compare playersPrice verdict
Value · MediumPetr Orlowski at 2.00
The underdog is priced longer than what we measure says.
Measured with only what was known before each match, against 100/odds and the price taken before the first serve. It says where the price misses, not who wins.
Round robin · match 3 of 6
0 of 6 playedGroup 3 of 8 on the day's ladder
Round robin before this match
Earlier matches of this round robin are still to finish: the table moves as they do.
| # | Player | W–L | Sets | To play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| = | Adam PavlikThis match | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3 |
| = | Leon Kolman | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3 |
| = | Petr OrlowskiThis match | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3 |
| = | Roman Merkl | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3 |
Rebuilt from the schedule and public results. Only matches that started earlier count.
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrlowski 2.00 / Pavlik 1.727
Setka Cup · #13276413
Orlowski2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog56% won 43 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back36% 14 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Pavlik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 33 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it83% 25 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOrlowski3wins
AwayPavlik7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPavlik leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrlowski100%3 of 3
AwayPavlik100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orlowski3Pavlik7n = 10Pavlik took 7 of 10
S2Orlowski5Pavlik5n = 10split evenly
S3Orlowski5Pavlik5n = 10split evenly
S4Orlowski1Pavlik4n = 5Pavlik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricOrlowskiPavlikO − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.434.7−3.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrlowskiPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 368 vs 164 / 32054.6%51.3%201 / 368 vs 164 / 320Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match WinnerForecastThe edge lives in the pick, one screen up
No price history
Neither player has a record at this price yet, so there is no odds range to publish.
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 17:45P. Orlowski206680A. Pavlik331111113
LSep 7 · 19:30P. Orlowski2485110A. Pavlik351111133
LAug 13 · 17:15P. Orlowski40891671A. Pavlik47111114113
LJul 22 · 19:30P. Orlowski4181111652A. Pavlik51119911113
WJun 23 · 20:48P. Orlowski341112113A. Pavlik1951040
LJun 23 · 19:45P. Orlowski2281040A. Pavlik341112113
WJun 21 · 19:45P. Orlowski3911116113A. Pavlik30661171
WJun 7 · 05:45P. Orlowski341211113A. Pavlik2010640
LMay 31 · 19:00P. Orlowski28611471A. Pavlik3811511113
LApr 29 · 17:30P. Orlowski322111181A. Pavlik4011135113
P. Orlowski10
WOct 7 · 20:48P. Provaznik2.00115121192P. Orlowski1.73711149113WOct 7 · 19:15V. Herrmann2.75211571P. Orlowski1.4011811113LOct 7 · 18:45P. Orlowski1.4414119972P. Provaznik2.631261111113LOct 7 · 17:45P. Orlowski1.836680A. Pavlik1.831111113LOct 4 · 08:43J. Jnr1.91201288113P. Orlowski1.801810111192LOct 4 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.91812128102J. Jnr1.8011101011123WOct 4 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.331113113T. Kanka3.2591160WOct 4 · 05:30P. Orlowski1.911111113D. Brichacek1.809990LOct 3 · 16:44P. Orlowski1.4411113832L. Kolman2.6365111153WOct 3 · 15:45P. Orlowski1.67111110113J. Juppa2.10341251
A. Pavlik10
LOct 7 · 20:59A. Pavlik1.44114471V. Herrmann2.6371111113WOct 7 · 19:45A. Pavlik1.91117166133P. Provaznik1.809111411112WOct 7 · 18:15V. Herrmann2.6381111892A. Pavlik1.44115611113WOct 7 · 17:45P. Orlowski1.836680A. Pavlik1.831111113LOct 1 · 20:14A. Pavlik1.571011891L. Stoces2.2512911113WOct 1 · 19:15L. Stoces1.9111711872A. Pavlik1.80611811113WOct 1 · 18:45A. Pavlik2.0011511113J. Jnr1.73611751LOct 1 · 17:45A. Pavlik2.5010111051M. Hajek1.5012812113LSep 27 · 20:34L. Kolman1.6711141113A. Pavlik2.107121151LSep 27 · 19:30F. Kubos2.2512611123A. Pavlik1.5710118101
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