TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Droshchynskyi vs Maksym Tiutiunnyk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412711116118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:59 and never touched: 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeAndrii Droshchynskyi to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Droshchynskyi above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Andrii Droshchynskyi at 68.7%
80 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Droshchynskyi 10–5 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Maksym Tiutiunnyk has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5968.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Droshchynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Droshchynskyi
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Droshchynskyi 1664 vs Tiutiunnyk 1584
Droshchynskyi
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Droshchynskyi 20% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Droshchynskyi 40% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Droshchynskyi +1 · Tiutiunnyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Droshchynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Droshchynskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDroshchynskyi 1.40 / Tiutiunnyk 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Droshchynskyi)-2.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276404
Droshchynskyi1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 89 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it90% 65 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it79% 75 of 95
Tiutiunnyk2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 39 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back27% 16 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDroshchynskyi6wins
AwayTiutiunnyk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDroshchynskyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDroshchynskyi66.7%6 of 9
AwayTiutiunnykn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Droshchynskyi9Tiutiunnyk1n = 10Droshchynskyi took 9 of 10
S2Droshchynskyi7Tiutiunnyk3n = 10Droshchynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Droshchynskyi4Tiutiunnyk6n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 10
S4Droshchynskyi4Tiutiunnyk2n = 6Droshchynskyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDroshchynskyiTiutiunnykD − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.931.4+5.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDroshchynskyiTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 256 vs 204 / 41157.8%49.6%148 / 256 vs 204 / 411Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DroshchynskyiDroshchynskyi 1.40/Tiutiunnyk 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Droshchynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Droshchynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 26 · 15:10A. Droshchynskyi4011117113M. Tiutiunnyk34971171
LSep 20 · 07:30A. Droshchynskyi4111119462M. Tiutiunnyk47591111113
LSep 19 · 14:10A. Droshchynskyi3911115482M. Tiutiunnyk50981111113
WSep 13 · 08:30A. Droshchynskyi331111113M. Tiutiunnyk259970
WSep 12 · 11:40A. Droshchynskyi331111113M. Tiutiunnyk188280
WAug 2 · 12:05A. Droshchynskyi4311118133M. Tiutiunnyk357611111
WJul 24 · 12:30A. Droshchynskyi4011711113M. Tiutiunnyk21211531
WJun 25 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi331111113M. Tiutiunnyk154830
LJun 7 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi30101370M. Tiutiunnyk381215113
A. Droshchynskyi10
WOct 11 · 05:00A. Droshchynskyi1.831011115113A. Zozulia1.8312881182LOct 10 · 17:40A. Droshchynskyi2.1081111842V. Evtodiy1.67117511113LOct 10 · 15:40V. Merzlikin3.75117118113A. Droshchynskyi1.2591151192LOct 10 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi2.201112373A. Droshchynskyi1.618101151LOct 10 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi1.3612261192M. Tiutiunnyk3.001011116113WOct 10 · 11:40Y. Makovka4.5011590A. Droshchynskyi1.171311113LOct 8 · 17:10A. Droshchynskyi1.61811831A. Zozulia2.2011811113LOct 8 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.831111113A. Droshchynskyi1.835480WOct 8 · 14:10A. Droshchynskyi1.331111113Y. Holoborodko3.254650WOct 8 · 13:10V. Merzlikin3.75911491A. Droshchynskyi1.2511311113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
LOct 11 · 05:30M. Tiutiunnyk1.44114781Y. Makovka2.6371111113WOct 10 · 17:10Y. Makovka2.507440M. Tiutiunnyk1.501111113LOct 10 · 16:10V. Evtodiy1.9114511123M. Tiutiunnyk1.8012117101WOct 10 · 14:40V. Merzlikin1.6711911902M. Tiutiunnyk2.1091171122WOct 10 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi1.3612261192M. Tiutiunnyk3.001011116113LOct 10 · 10:40Y. Skorobahatyi2.2571112113M. Tiutiunnyk1.571181061WOct 1 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko2.006880M. Tiutiunnyk1.731111113LOct 1 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.759950V. Maksuta1.401111113LOct 1 · 14:10E. Hrytsenko1.8311117113M. Tiutiunnyk1.83741161LOct 1 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.501111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.505840
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