TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Merzlikin vs Andrii Droshchynskyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119711115811119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:35 and never touched: 81.3% is still 81.3%
Graded at full timeAndrii Droshchynskyi to win
81.3%
81.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Andrii Droshchynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 93 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Andrii Droshchynskyi at 81.3%
93 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 1–11 Andrii Droshchynskyi Valerii Merzlikin has won 1 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3581.3%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
clears by 1.3pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Droshchynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-11 in 12
Droshchynskyi
Wrong
gap of 10 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1561 vs Droshchynskyi 1681
Droshchynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 60% vs Droshchynskyi 20%
Merzlikin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 40% vs Droshchynskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +1 · Droshchynskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans Droshchynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Droshchynskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 3.75 / Droshchynskyi 1.25
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Droshchynskyi)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13270951
Merzlikin3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 28 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back25% 9 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back18% 4 of 22
Droshchynskyi1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 88 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it90% 64 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it80% 74 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin0wins
AwayDroshchynskyi10wins
Droshchynskyi leads 10–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin0%0 of 3
AwayDroshchynskyi100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin3Droshchynskyi7n = 10Droshchynskyi took 7 of 10
S2Merzlikin1Droshchynskyi9n = 10Droshchynskyi took 9 of 10
S3Merzlikin3Droshchynskyi6n = 9Droshchynskyi took 6 of 9
S4Merzlikin0Droshchynskyi7n = 7Droshchynskyi took 7 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away770%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinDroshchynskyiM − DBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.339.9−9.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinDroshchynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 587 vs 147 / 25344.6%58.1%262 / 587 vs 147 / 253Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DroshchynskyiMerzlikin 3.75/Droshchynskyi 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.3%
Droshchynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 8 · 13:10V. Merzlikin33911491A. Droshchynskyi3611311113
LSep 19 · 12:10V. Merzlikin324611111A. Droshchynskyi3911114133
LSep 17 · 13:40V. Merzlikin27147331A. Droshchynskyi45121111113
LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin351210671A. Droshchynskyi44101211113
LAug 22 · 12:40V. Merzlikin217860A. Droshchynskyi331111113
LAug 13 · 15:10V. Merzlikin28101080A. Droshchynskyi351212113
LAug 8 · 15:10V. Merzlikin30751171A. Droshchynskyi4111118113
LApr 5 · 11:30V. Merzlikin381310691A. Droshchynskyi45111211113
LMar 26 · 16:10V. Merzlikin29771141A. Droshchynskyi4111118113
V. Merzlikin10
WOct 10 · 16:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.576580V. Merzlikin2.251111113LOct 10 · 14:40V. Merzlikin1.6711911902M. Tiutiunnyk2.1091171122WOct 10 · 13:10V. Merzlikin1.221111113Y. Makovka4.0048100LOct 10 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.73871131V. Evtodiy2.0011114113WOct 8 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn1.577750V. Merzlikin2.251111113LOct 8 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.91911651V. Shvidkiy1.8011911113WOct 8 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.3811114133A. Zozulia1.536711111LOct 8 · 13:10V. Merzlikin3.75911491A. Droshchynskyi1.2511311113LOct 8 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.83591161Y. Holoborodko1.8311116113WOct 1 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov1.44891181V. Merzlikin2.6311118113
A. Droshchynskyi10
LOct 10 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi2.201112373A. Droshchynskyi1.618101151LOct 10 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi1.3612261192M. Tiutiunnyk3.001011116113WOct 10 · 11:40Y. Makovka4.5011590A. Droshchynskyi1.171311113LOct 8 · 17:10A. Droshchynskyi1.61811831A. Zozulia2.2011811113LOct 8 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.831111113A. Droshchynskyi1.835480WOct 8 · 14:10A. Droshchynskyi1.331111113Y. Holoborodko3.254650WOct 8 · 13:10V. Merzlikin3.75911491A. Droshchynskyi1.2511311113WOct 4 · 11:30O. Varlamov3.759790A. Droshchynskyi1.251111113LOct 4 · 10:00A. Droshchynskyi1.3086111192Y. Holoborodko3.40111144113WOct 4 · 08:00O. Kuzyshyn1.739101181A. Droshchynskyi2.0011124113
Upcoming Matches
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A. Droshchynskyi
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