TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Matus vs Martin Sobota 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 22 - Czech 11 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161151210––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:37 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 55 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Jiri Matus at 67.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 2–2 Martin Sobota Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3767.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Matus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1435 vs Sobota 1293
Matus
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 40% vs Sobota 80%
Sobota
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 50% vs Sobota 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus +1 · Sobota +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Matus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobota form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.444 / Sobota 2.625
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Matus)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13271760
Matus1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 93 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it76% 67 of 88
Sobota2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 37 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMatus2wins
AwaySobota2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus2Sobota2n = 4split evenly
S2Matus2Sobota2n = 4split evenly
S3Matus3Sobota1n = 4Matus took 3 of 4
S4Matus2Sobota2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMatusSobotaM − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match40.838.2+2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 474 vs 85 / 19852.5%42.9%249 / 474 vs 85 / 198Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.44/Sobota 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 29 · 08:45J. Matus3911116113M. Sobota26381141
LSep 29 · 06:45J. Matus4713812682M. Sobota5411111011113
WSep 20 · 07:15J. Matus43101111113M. Sobota33126871
LAug 23 · 15:14J. Matus34971171M. Sobota4011117113
J. Matus10
LOct 10 · 07:40J. Matus1.44771181P. Sturma2.6311119113LOct 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.67611981R. Jancak2.1011511113WOct 9 · 08:40P. Jokiel2.206350J. Matus1.601111113LOct 9 · 07:40J. Matus2.0011118582O. Vaclahovsky1.73991111113LOct 9 · 06:40J. Matus1.44911101182P. Jokiel2.63117126113LOct 9 · 05:40J. Matus2.001178101J. Sindler1.7331111123WOct 8 · 08:39P. Jokiel2.007790J. Matus1.731111113LOct 8 · 07:40O. Skvor1.7311116113J. Matus2.00971191WOct 8 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.38111281172J. Matus1.53814114113LOct 8 · 06:10J. Matus1.577812111P. Jokiel2.25111110133
M. Sobota10
WOct 10 · 07:10M. Sobota2.2081114113P. Sturma1.611171271WOct 4 · 09:13L. Stempak1.731011881M. Sobota2.0012811113LOct 4 · 08:10M. Sobota1.91681171L. Stempak1.8011115113WOct 4 · 06:40J. Lysek1.83951151M. Sobota1.8311116113WOct 4 · 06:10L. Snr1.61311551M. Sobota2.2011611113WSep 30 · 16:38M. Sobota1.6191111123J. Lysek2.201138101LSep 30 · 15:40F. Mandrysz1.831113211113M. Sobota1.8371511892WSep 30 · 15:10J. Lysek1.8310121151M. Sobota1.8312148113LSep 30 · 14:10M. Sobota2.00117981L. Zustina1.7381111113LSep 29 · 08:45J. Matus1.5711116113M. Sobota2.25381141
Upcoming Matches
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M. Sobota
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