TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vaclav Coubal vs Patrik Muller 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611111369––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:34 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeVaclav Coubal to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Coubal above · Patrik Muller below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 6-9
Point 56 set 3, 6-9 · our read held Vaclav Coubal at 62.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Coubal 5–3 Patrik Muller Patrik Muller has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3462.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 8.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Coubal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Coubal
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coubal 1278 vs Muller 1165
Coubal
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coubal 60% vs Muller 40%
Coubal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coubal 60% vs Muller 30%
Coubal
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Coubal +2 · Muller +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Coubal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Coubal form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoubal 1.40 / Muller 2.75
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Coubal)-8.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270858
Coubal1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 29 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it69% 18 of 26
Muller2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 21 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeCoubal5wins
AwayMuller3wins
3 of 8 to a deciderCoubal leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCoubal66.7%2 of 3
AwayMuller40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coubal3Muller5n = 8Muller took 5 of 8
S2Coubal6Muller2n = 8Coubal took 6 of 8
S3Coubal5Muller3n = 8Coubal took 5 of 8
S4Coubal3Muller3n = 6split evenly
S5Coubal2Muller1n = 3Coubal took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricCoubalMullerC − MBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match41.640.7+0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoubalMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 357 vs 74 / 17247.9%43%171 / 357 vs 74 / 172Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CoubalCoubal 1.40/Muller 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Coubal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal371113133P. Muller30811110
WApr 30 · 12:43V. Coubal4181111113P. Muller34118781
LApr 30 · 09:15V. Coubal4411116882P. Muller51991111113
LApr 28 · 09:15V. Coubal33511981P. Muller4211911113
WFeb 26 · 15:30V. Coubal4161311113P. Muller271111321
WOct 30 · 11:30V. Coubal50126118133P. Muller491011611112
WMay 2 · 11:30V. Coubal45451111143P. Muller52111199122
V. Coubal10
LOct 10 · 16:34V. Coubal2.10147110V. Kucala1.671611133WOct 10 · 15:30V. Kucala1.5781112101V. Coubal2.2511714123WOct 10 · 14:00V. Coubal2.75117911123M. Holub1.40911117112WOct 5 · 20:33V. Coubal1.7371113113M. Vydra2.001191181LOct 5 · 20:00V. Coubal2.25911591M. Cmil1.5711811113WOct 5 · 18:30M. Vydra1.73871151V. Coubal2.0011115113LOct 5 · 18:00J. Mares2.388111211113V. Coubal1.5311614572WSep 16 · 17:05A. Akopyan2.757960V. Coubal1.401111113WSep 16 · 16:00V. Coubal1.4451111153A. Akopyan2.631197131LSep 16 · 14:30A. Skyba1.831111113V. Coubal1.836390
P. Muller10
LOct 10 · 16:00M. Holub1.4051211113P. Muller2.751110461WOct 10 · 13:30V. Kucala1.6721161132P. Muller2.1011211743LOct 5 · 12:33P. Muller2.256790M. Holub1.571111113LOct 5 · 12:00P. Muller2.201011161P. Moulis1.6112117113WOct 5 · 10:30M. Holub1.44111291152P. Muller2.63414115113LOct 5 · 10:00J. Jnr1.4061111113P. Muller2.75114871LSep 29 · 08:44J. Krejcik1.531111113P. Muller2.386990LSep 29 · 07:30A. Akopyan1.7381111123P. Muller2.001179101WSep 29 · 07:00P. Muller3.2512119113J. Krejcik1.331081181LSep 29 · 06:00P. Muller1.91105121192J. Vrnak1.801211104113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.