TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viktor Kucala vs Martin Holub 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711511115711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingViktor Kucala above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 68 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Martin Holub at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Kucala 4–2 Martin Holub Martin Holub has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2054.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Kucala
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucala 1262 vs Holub 1276
Holub
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucala 60% vs Holub 40%
Kucala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucala 50% vs Holub 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucala -1 · Holub -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Holub) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucala 1.909 / Holub 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holub)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270763
Kucala1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 20 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back16% 6 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Holub1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 93 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it69% 64 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKucala4wins
AwayHolub2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderKucala leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKucalan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHolub50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucala2Holub4n = 6Holub took 4 of 6
S2Kucala2Holub4n = 6Holub took 4 of 6
S3Kucala4Holub2n = 6Kucala took 4 of 6
S4Kucala2Holub2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricKucalaHolubK − HBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match31.836.8−5.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucalaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 277 vs 348 / 64444%54%122 / 277 vs 348 / 644Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.840.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HolubKucala 1.91/Holub 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 4 · 15:00V. Kucala40211115113M. Holub4711791192
LAug 19 · 11:00V. Kucala163760M. Holub331111113
LJun 29 · 11:00V. Kucala2111640M. Holub351311113
WMar 29 · 13:30V. Kucala4313811113M. Holub361111861
WMar 6 · 20:30V. Kucala3911511123M. Holub336116101
V. Kucala10
WOct 10 · 16:34V. Coubal2.10147110V. Kucala1.671611133LOct 10 · 15:30V. Kucala1.5781112101V. Coubal2.2511714123LOct 10 · 13:30V. Kucala1.6721161132P. Muller2.1011211743WOct 4 · 17:04V. Kucala2.381110117113P. Moulis1.5391231152WOct 4 · 16:00M. Cmil1.831081171V. Kucala1.8312116113WOct 4 · 15:00M. Holub1.3611791192V. Kucala3.00211115113LOct 4 · 13:30P. Moulis1.53515911113V. Kucala2.38111311842WAug 31 · 12:34J. Krejcik1.3641141162V. Kucala3.00119118113WAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 10:30V. Kucala2.63111111362J. Krejcik1.44138711113
M. Holub10
WOct 10 · 16:00M. Holub1.4051211113P. Muller2.751110461LOct 10 · 14:00V. Coubal2.75117911123M. Holub1.40911117112LOct 7 · 17:13A. Akopyan1.91167613113M. Holub1.801411111182WOct 7 · 15:30F. Fryml1.83119100M. Holub1.831311123LOct 7 · 15:00M. Holub1.57101170A. Akopyan2.251213113WOct 7 · 14:00M. Holub1.801111113M. Cmil1.915770WOct 5 · 12:33P. Muller2.256790M. Holub1.571111113LOct 5 · 11:30M. Holub2.0061111692J. Jnr1.73119811113LOct 5 · 10:30M. Holub1.44111291152P. Muller2.63414115113LOct 4 · 15:00M. Holub1.3611791192V. Kucala3.00211115113
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