TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Kolbusovsky vs Simon Matousch 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 5 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101416101211723
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:39 and never touched: 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeSimon Matousch to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Simon Matousch below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 2-3
Point 97 set 5, 2-3 · our read held Simon Matousch at 58.2%
97 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 6–4 Simon Matousch Simon Matousch has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:3958.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Matousch
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Kolbusovsky
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1235 vs Matousch 1417
Matousch
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 20% vs Matousch 80%
Matousch
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 30% vs Matousch 60%
Matousch
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky +1 · Matousch +3
Matousch
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Matousch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 2.10 / Matousch 1.666
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Matousch)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268299
Kolbusovsky2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 58 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Matousch1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 21 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it63% 17 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky6wins
AwayMatousch4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolbusovsky leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovsky80%4 of 5
AwayMatousch60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky5Matousch5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolbusovsky7Matousch3n = 10Kolbusovsky took 7 of 10
S3Kolbusovsky5Matousch5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolbusovsky2Matousch6n = 8Matousch took 6 of 8
S5Kolbusovsky3Matousch0n = 3Kolbusovsky took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyMatouschK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.038.2+0.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime180 / 425 vs 149 / 33442.4%44.6%180 / 425 vs 149 / 334Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatouschKolbusovsky 2.10/Matousch 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.2%
Matousch · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Matousch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 13:35M. Kolbusovsky45811114113S. Matousch4811891192
WOct 5 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky471111410113S. Matousch4457111292
WSep 21 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky50891111113S. Matousch4311118582
LAug 11 · 10:04M. Kolbusovsky381013781S. Matousch45121111113
WAug 11 · 06:55M. Kolbusovsky341211113S. Matousch2410860
LJul 24 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky34691181S. Matousch3911116113
LJun 29 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky35118791S. Matousch3961111113
LMay 29 · 08:25M. Kolbusovsky32813561S. Matousch44111111113
WMar 13 · 15:00M. Kolbusovsky4211119113S. Matousch35871191
WMar 13 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky331111113S. Matousch214980
M. Kolbusovsky10
WOct 9 · 15:20P. Cibik1.405141171M. Kolbusovsky2.7511166113LOct 9 · 14:50M. Cesak1.28511711113M. Kolbusovsky3.5011811792LOct 6 · 21:25M. Nemec1.451411113M. Kolbusovsky2.6012470LOct 6 · 20:20M. Kolbusovsky2.004680O. Sebek1.731111113LOct 6 · 19:20M. Kolbusovsky2.2011661152M. Nemec1.61911118113LOct 6 · 18:20M. Kolbusovsky2.106990M. Dlask1.671111113WOct 5 · 13:35S. Matousch1.8011891192M. Kolbusovsky1.90811114113LOct 5 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky1.9110570O. Sebek1.801211113LOct 5 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00541181J. Vintr1.3611113113WOct 5 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky2.381111410113S. Matousch1.5357111292
S. Matousch10
WOct 9 · 15:50S. Matousch3.00811911113M. Cesak1.3611711662WOct 9 · 14:20P. Cibik1.57881191S. Matousch2.2511119113WOct 8 · 22:30S. Matousch2.151110117113L. Vich1.6281271162LOct 8 · 21:25S. Matousch2.253101191Z. Vyskocil1.5711125113WOct 8 · 19:55L. Vich1.55128461S. Matousch2.25101111113WOct 8 · 19:25P. Cibik1.5711581182S. Matousch2.25711119113LOct 5 · 13:35S. Matousch1.8011891192M. Kolbusovsky1.90811114113LOct 5 · 12:50J. Vintr1.83117311143S. Matousch1.83811117122WOct 5 · 11:50S. Matousch1.40611911113O. Sebek2.7511611582LOct 5 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky2.381111410113S. Matousch1.5357111292
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.