TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Mytsyk vs Maksym Stetsenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111181210117––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:43 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Maksym Stetsenko @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingOleksandr Mytsyk above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 79 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 64.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mytsyk 9–28 Maksym Stetsenko Oleksandr Mytsyk has won 9 of their 37 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 06:43Sent to Pro: Maksym Stetsenko @ 1.50 · Lost
64.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stetsenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-28 in 37
Stetsenko
Wrong
gap of 19 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mytsyk 1381 vs Stetsenko 1467
Stetsenko
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mytsyk 60% vs Stetsenko 20%
Mytsyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mytsyk 60% vs Stetsenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mytsyk +2 · Stetsenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Stetsenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMytsyk 2.50 / Stetsenko 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Stetsenko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266142
Mytsyk2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 55 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Stetsenko1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 119 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it97% 70 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it88% 91 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMytsyk4wins
AwayStetsenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMytsyk60%3 of 5
AwayStetsenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mytsyk5Stetsenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Mytsyk4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S3Mytsyk4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S4Mytsyk4Stetsenko2n = 6Mytsyk took 4 of 6
S5Mytsyk1Stetsenko2n = 3Stetsenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMytsykStetsenkoM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.635.9−0.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMytsykStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime533 / 1074 vs 455 / 86949.6%52.4%533 / 1074 vs 455 / 869Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoMytsyk 2.50/Stetsenko 1.50
Miss
What we said
64.9%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Maksym Stetsenko @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Mytsyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 11:20O. Mytsyk4311591172M. Stetsenko49911117113
LOct 4 · 18:30O. Mytsyk179260M. Stetsenko331111113
WOct 1 · 12:50O. Mytsyk4211119113M. Stetsenko35781191
LSep 30 · 13:30O. Mytsyk366611131M. Stetsenko4511118153
LSep 28 · 12:20O. Mytsyk226970M. Stetsenko331111113
WSep 24 · 07:50O. Mytsyk341211113M. Stetsenko2010730
WSep 21 · 07:05O. Mytsyk331111113M. Stetsenko219840
LSep 17 · 10:50O. Mytsyk4511861192M. Stetsenko44611115113
LSep 14 · 12:50O. Mytsyk32961251M. Stetsenko43111110113
WSep 13 · 12:30O. Mytsyk521011911113M. Stetsenko3612111842
O. Mytsyk10
WOct 9 · 10:50S. Skhabitskiy2.10116861O. Mytsyk1.6781111113WOct 9 · 08:50O. Ovsiienko1.80136111172O. Mytsyk1.91151135113WOct 9 · 06:50V. Smyk1.80111481182O. Mytsyk1.91816117113WOct 7 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.4011715113S. Semenets2.755111361LOct 7 · 10:05V. Kondratenko2.251111108133O. Mytsyk1.57931211112LOct 7 · 08:05V. Mukhin3.001111133O. Mytsyk1.3657110WOct 7 · 07:05O. Mytsyk1.5381111133S. Hovorunets2.381166111WOct 7 · 06:05V. Stukalov3.4073121382O. Mytsyk1.3011111011113LOct 5 · 12:50V. Melnykov2.25118911113O. Mytsyk1.5791111962LOct 5 · 11:20O. Mytsyk2.6311591172M. Stetsenko1.44911117113
M. Stetsenko10
LOct 9 · 09:50S. Skhabitskiy2.38131112113M. Stetsenko1.531561061WOct 9 · 05:50O. Ovsiienko2.3811117752M. Stetsenko1.53971111113LOct 8 · 12:50M. Stetsenko3.7567111142S. Solomko1.25111197113LOct 8 · 10:50I. Emets1.6711119113M. Stetsenko2.10761161LOct 8 · 08:50O. Leonenko1.57881111113M. Stetsenko2.2511118392LOct 8 · 07:50M. Stetsenko2.00119791O. Volynets1.7381111113WOct 8 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.3379150M. Stetsenko3.251111173WOct 5 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.7311680M. Stetsenko2.001311113WOct 5 · 11:20O. Mytsyk2.6311591172M. Stetsenko1.44911117113WOct 5 · 09:50O. Ovsiienko2.506750M. Stetsenko1.501111113
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