TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatolii Nikolenko vs Mykolay Treschetka 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811711––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:19 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykolay Treschetka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Nikolenko above · Mykolay Treschetka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Mykolay Treschetka at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nikolenko 31–25 Mykolay Treschetka Mykolay Treschetka has won 25 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Treschetka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
31-25 in 56
Nikolenko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nikolenko 1079 vs Treschetka 1081
Treschetka
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nikolenko 80% vs Treschetka 40%
Nikolenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nikolenko 50% vs Treschetka 30%
Nikolenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nikolenko +1 · Treschetka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Treschetka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Treschetka form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNikolenko 1.909 / Treschetka 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Treschetka)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13265915
Nikolenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 42 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Treschetka1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 72 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNikolenko4wins
AwayTreschetka6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTreschetka leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNikolenko80%4 of 5
AwayTreschetka100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nikolenko5Treschetka5n = 10split evenly
S2Nikolenko4Treschetka6n = 10Treschetka took 6 of 10
S3Nikolenko3Treschetka7n = 10Treschetka took 7 of 10
S4Nikolenko4Treschetka3n = 7Nikolenko took 4 of 7
S5Nikolenko2Treschetka2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNikolenkoTreschetkaN − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.739.8−0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNikolenkoTreschetkaBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 677 vs 454 / 92447.1%49.1%319 / 677 vs 454 / 924Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TreschetkaNikolenko 1.91/Treschetka 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Treschetka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Treschetka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 08:55A. Nikolenko331111113M. Treschetka195680
WSep 30 · 18:25A. Nikolenko52118911133M. Treschetka48711118112
LSep 28 · 08:55A. Nikolenko35911961M. Treschetka3711411113
LSep 23 · 16:55A. Nikolenko315114111M. Treschetka4211711133
LSep 3 · 09:25A. Nikolenko52118811142M. Treschetka54711119163
LSep 2 · 17:55A. Nikolenko29910100M. Treschetka351112123
LMay 25 · 09:25A. Nikolenko228590M. Treschetka331111113
LMay 7 · 04:55A. Nikolenko48811111172M. Treschetka50117138113
WMay 6 · 16:55A. Nikolenko531310118113M. Treschetka50111291172
WApr 20 · 04:55A. Nikolenko4211911113M. Treschetka30611581
A. Nikolenko10
WOct 9 · 12:25A. Nikolenko3.251111113P. Chyzh1.339980LOct 2 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi1.36116101393A. Nikolenko3.00611121162WOct 2 · 15:25A. Nikolenko3.2515111012123O. Maksymkiv1.331331214102WOct 2 · 14:25H. Oliynyk1.575880A. Nikolenko2.251111113WOct 2 · 12:55A. Nikolenko2.7591111113M. Dunas1.40116871LOct 1 · 10:55A. Nikolenko2.63101740M. Dunas1.441219113WOct 1 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.735680A. Nikolenko2.001111113LOct 1 · 07:55A. Nikolenko3.25710111192O. Maksymkiv1.33111256113LOct 1 · 06:55V. Salivonchyk1.67111110113A. Nikolenko2.10591281LOct 1 · 05:25A. Nikolenko3.0071111382O. Maslovskyi1.36115611113
M. Treschetka10
WOct 9 · 12:55M. Treschetka1.40121147133I. Fokin2.751081111112LOct 1 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.20121070V. Salivonchyk1.611412113LOct 1 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.735680A. Nikolenko2.001111113LOct 1 · 07:25M. Treschetka2.506990O. Maslovskyi1.501111113WOct 1 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.4491111113O. Maksymkiv2.63115781LOct 1 · 04:25M. Treschetka1.918770M. Dunas1.801111113LSep 30 · 18:25A. Nikolenko2.00118911133M. Treschetka1.73711118112LSep 30 · 17:25M. Dunas1.91611811113M. Treschetka1.8011711872LSep 30 · 15:55H. Oliynyk1.17911511113M. Treschetka4.5011811682WSep 30 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv2.63611371M. Treschetka1.4411611113
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