TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Kocab vs Michal Brozek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511211––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:20 and never touched: 61.1% is still 61.1%
Graded at full timeJan Kocab to win
61.1%
61.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Kocab above · Michal Brozek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 48 set 3, 2-11 · our read held Jan Kocab at 61.1%
48 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kocab 24–9 Michal Brozek Michal Brozek has won 9 of their 33 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kocab beat Brozek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2061.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 10.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kocab
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
24-9 in 33
Kocab
Wrong
gap of 15 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocab 1701 vs Brozek 1627
Kocab
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocab 20% vs Brozek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocab 60% vs Brozek 40%
Kocab
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocab -2 · Brozek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Kocab) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocab 1.40 / Brozek 2.75
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Kocab)-10.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13264715
Kocab1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 66 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it89% 55 of 62
Brozek2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 63 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back11% 9 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocab10wins
AwayBrozek0wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKocab leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocab100%9 of 9
AwayBrozekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocab9Brozek1n = 10Kocab took 9 of 10
S2Kocab5Brozek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kocab8Brozek2n = 10Kocab took 8 of 10
S4Kocab5Brozek1n = 6Kocab took 5 of 6
S5Kocab3Brozek0n = 3Kocab took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocabBrozekK − BBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match41.229.0+12.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocabBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 292 vs 520 / 100347.6%51.8%139 / 292 vs 520 / 1003Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KocabKocab 1.40/Brozek 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.1%
Kocab · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 10:50J. Kocab381116113M. Brozek2861480
WOct 2 · 08:25J. Kocab3911116113M. Brozek27371161
WSep 22 · 13:35J. Kocab331111113M. Brozek112630
WSep 22 · 11:50J. Kocab45117115113M. Brozek4031171182
WSep 21 · 15:25J. Kocab50119811113M. Brozek3751111912
WSep 19 · 14:10J. Kocab361114113M. Brozek2651290
WSep 19 · 11:55J. Kocab341211113M. Brozek2410590
WSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab4211911113M. Brozek33911491
WSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab43111011113M. Brozek24512341
WSep 1 · 07:25J. Kocab521091111113M. Brozek4012117462
J. Kocab10
LOct 8 · 12:50J. Kocab2.63961151M. Cerny1.4411117113LOct 8 · 11:20D. Vesecky2.631111113J. Kocab1.448590WOct 8 · 10:50M. Brozek2.6361480J. Kocab1.441116113LOct 4 · 14:25P. Dvorak1.661211123J. Kocab2.10109100LOct 4 · 12:55P. Dvorak1.801111811113J. Kocab1.9166111382WOct 4 · 12:25V. Nadvornik2.257580J. Kocab1.571111113WOct 4 · 11:25J. Kocab1.3611111110113J. Benak3.0071381282WOct 2 · 10:40J. Kocab1.73111195113J. Benak2.0044111172WOct 2 · 09:25V. Nadvornik1.835111110102J. Kocab1.83115312123WOct 2 · 08:25J. Kocab1.4411116113M. Brozek2.63371161
M. Brozek10
WOct 8 · 12:20D. Vesecky1.57119711102M. Brozek2.25811111123LOct 8 · 11:50M. Cerny1.2261111113M. Brozek4.00114341LOct 8 · 10:50M. Brozek2.6361480J. Kocab1.441116113LOct 6 · 13:25M. Brozek1.67118681J. Vonasek2.1091111113LOct 6 · 12:50P. Benes1.8011125113M. Brozek1.918101191LOct 6 · 11:50M. Brozek1.44611121162J. Vonasek2.631191013113WOct 6 · 10:20A. Langer2.7510111091M. Brozek1.4012912113LOct 4 · 22:25M. Brozek1.8311981182M. Kulisek1.83911119113WOct 4 · 21:25O. Fiklik2.388150M. Brozek1.531111113LOct 2 · 08:25J. Kocab1.4411116113M. Brozek2.63371161
Upcoming Matches
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M. Brozek
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