TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vaclav Nadvornik vs Jan Kocab 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
51111511310121012
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:19 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Nadvornik above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 90 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nadvornik 6–5 Jan Kocab Jan Kocab has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kocab
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nadvornik 1735 vs Kocab 1715
Nadvornik
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nadvornik 60% vs Kocab 40%
Nadvornik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nadvornik 70% vs Kocab 50%
Nadvornik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nadvornik -1 · Kocab +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Nadvornik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNadvornik 1.833 / Kocab 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nadvornik)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13229906
Nadvornik1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kocab1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNadvornik5wins
AwayKocab5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNadvornik83.3%5 of 6
AwayKocab100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nadvornik6Kocab4n = 10Nadvornik took 6 of 10
S2Nadvornik6Kocab4n = 10Nadvornik took 6 of 10
S3Nadvornik7Kocab3n = 10Nadvornik took 7 of 10
S4Nadvornik3Kocab3n = 6split evenly
S5Nadvornik0Kocab3n = 3Kocab took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNadvornikKocabN − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.134.4+2.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNadvornikKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 315 vs 135 / 28454.9%47.5%173 / 315 vs 135 / 284Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NadvornikNadvornik 1.83/Kocab 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Nadvornik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 09:25V. Nadvornik475111110102J. Kocab43115312123
WSep 22 · 12:20V. Nadvornik3811115113J. Kocab34961181
LDec 6 · 19:10V. Nadvornik4211311982J. Kocab48811711113
LNov 30 · 15:20V. Nadvornik33411991J. Kocab3711411113
WFeb 13 · 10:25V. Nadvornik331111113J. Kocab166370
WFeb 11 · 19:10V. Nadvornik341111123J. Kocab2486100
LFeb 11 · 15:40V. Nadvornik4788111192J. Kocab47111177113
LFeb 5 · 13:25V. Nadvornik2711880J. Kocab351311113
WJan 30 · 09:25V. Nadvornik3611311113J. Kocab36911881
WJan 28 · 14:25V. Nadvornik341111123J. Kocab2495100
V. Nadvornik10
LOct 2 · 10:10V. Nadvornik1.482680M. Brozek2.451111113LOct 2 · 07:55J. Benak1.801111911113V. Nadvornik1.9113811592WOct 2 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3891060V. Nadvornik1.531112113WOct 1 · 10:09V. Nadvornik2.0011611113M. Cerny1.73911271LOct 1 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.73118711113V. Nadvornik2.0051111682WOct 1 · 08:25M. Cerny1.5795100V. Nadvornik2.251111123LOct 1 · 07:25V. Nadvornik2.388840D. Bochnak1.531111113WSep 22 · 14:05V. Nadvornik1.6091211113P. Benes2.201110861WSep 22 · 12:20V. Nadvornik2.0011115113J. Kocab1.73961181WSep 22 · 11:20V. Nadvornik1.57821111123P. Benes2.25111199102
J. Kocab10
WOct 2 · 08:25J. Kocab1.4411116113M. Brozek2.63371161WOct 2 · 06:55J. Benak1.83711691J. Kocab1.8311911113LOct 1 · 14:03J. Kocab1.40411111052D. Vesecky2.75116712113LOct 1 · 12:55J. Kocab3.0081030M. Cerny1.361112113LOct 1 · 11:55J. Kocab3.409910D. Bochnak1.301111113WOct 1 · 10:55J. Kocab1.44471111113D. Vesecky2.6311117272WSep 27 · 18:04J. Kocab1.61111111113M. Prochazka2.20851381LSep 27 · 17:25J. Kocab2.20691161P. Dvorak1.6111115113WSep 27 · 15:55M. Prochazka1.80118471J. Kocab1.9161111113LSep 22 · 12:20V. Nadvornik2.0011115113J. Kocab1.73961181
Upcoming Matches
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