TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Vesecky vs Jan Kocab 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115119––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:19 and never touched: 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeJan Kocab to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Vesecky above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Jan Kocab at 70.8%
55 points played in total.
H2H David Vesecky 2–15 Jan Kocab David Vesecky has won 2 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1970.8%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
clears by 1.5pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kocab
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-15 in 17
Kocab
Wrong
gap of 13 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesecky 1620 vs Kocab 1731
Kocab
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesecky 20% vs Kocab 60%
Kocab
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesecky 30% vs Kocab 70%
Kocab
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesecky +1 · Kocab +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Kocab) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vesecky form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesecky 2.625 / Kocab 1.444
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Kocab)+1.5pp
TT Cup · #13261953
Vesecky2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 61 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Kocab1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 66 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it89% 55 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVesecky2wins
AwayKocab8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKocab leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVesecky66.7%2 of 3
AwayKocab100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesecky3Kocab7n = 10Kocab took 7 of 10
S2Vesecky4Kocab6n = 10Kocab took 6 of 10
S3Vesecky4Kocab6n = 10Kocab took 6 of 10
S4Vesecky2Kocab5n = 7Kocab took 5 of 7
S5Vesecky1Kocab2n = 3Kocab took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeseckyKocabV − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.339.5−5.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeseckyKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 648 vs 139 / 29054.2%47.9%351 / 648 vs 139 / 290Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KocabVesecky 2.63/Kocab 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.8%
Kocab · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vesecky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 14:03D. Vesecky47116712113J. Kocab41411111052
LOct 1 · 10:55D. Vesecky3811117272J. Kocab44471111113
LSep 25 · 09:58D. Vesecky4998121192J. Kocab471111104113
LSep 25 · 07:55D. Vesecky324111161J. Kocab4111136113
LSep 23 · 11:55D. Vesecky2551280J. Kocab361114113
LSep 7 · 11:25D. Vesecky2211740J. Kocab351311113
LSep 1 · 09:25D. Vesecky26211761J. Kocab4011711113
LAug 31 · 11:55D. Vesecky31714461J. Kocab45111211113
LAug 27 · 10:03D. Vesecky387101291J. Kocab44111210113
WAug 27 · 06:55D. Vesecky351111133J. Kocab2283110
D. Vesecky10
LOct 8 · 12:20D. Vesecky1.57119711102M. Brozek2.25811111123WOct 8 · 10:20D. Vesecky2.251111113M. Cerny1.576760LOct 7 · 17:54M. Cerny1.571111113D. Vesecky2.259990LOct 7 · 17:25M. Cerny1.5712411113D. Vesecky2.251011871LOct 7 · 16:25D. Vesecky2.257660M. Stusek1.571111113LOct 7 · 14:55T. Flicek1.80911911113D. Vesecky1.9111811962LOct 7 · 14:23D. Bochnak1.501115113D. Vesecky2.5091360LOct 7 · 12:55D. Vesecky2.38611581D. Bochnak1.5311911113WOct 7 · 11:55D. Vesecky1.731511113V. Nadvornik2.0013950WOct 7 · 10:55D. Vesecky2.101261211133M. Cerny1.6710111013112
J. Kocab10
WOct 8 · 10:50M. Brozek2.6361480J. Kocab1.441116113LOct 4 · 14:25P. Dvorak1.661211123J. Kocab2.10109100LOct 4 · 12:55P. Dvorak1.801111811113J. Kocab1.9166111382WOct 4 · 12:25V. Nadvornik2.257580J. Kocab1.571111113WOct 4 · 11:25J. Kocab1.3611111110113J. Benak3.0071381282WOct 2 · 10:40J. Kocab1.73111195113J. Benak2.0044111172WOct 2 · 09:25V. Nadvornik1.835111110102J. Kocab1.83115312123WOct 2 · 08:25J. Kocab1.4411116113M. Brozek2.63371161WOct 2 · 06:55J. Benak1.83711691J. Kocab1.8311911113LOct 1 · 14:03J. Kocab1.40411111052D. Vesecky2.75116712113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.