TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Dvorak vs Jan Kocab 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161168111113118
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:48 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Kocab to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Dvorak above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 10-8
Point 95 set 5, 10-8 · our read held Jan Kocab at 54.0%
95 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Petr Dvorak 1–0 Jan Kocab Jan Kocab has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4854.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1649 vs Kocab 1750
Kocab
Wrong
both rated, 101 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 40% vs Kocab 100%
Kocab
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 50% vs Kocab 70%
Kocab
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +1 · Kocab +6
Kocab
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kocab) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.80 / Kocab 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kocab)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13241999
Dvorak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite77% won 13 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Kocab1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 31 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back20% 11 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDvorak1wins
AwayKocab0wins
Dvorak leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDvorakKocabD − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.032.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 66 vs 138 / 28750%48.1%33 / 66 vs 138 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KocabDvorak 1.80/Kocab 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kocab · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 27 · 17:25P. Dvorak3811115113J. Kocab32691161
P. Dvorak10
WOct 4 · 11:55P. Dvorak1.6711911113J. Benak2.10811991LOct 4 · 10:55P. Dvorak2.38411941V. Nadvornik1.5311911113LOct 2 · 13:55P. Dvorak2.008570M. Cerny1.731111113LOct 2 · 12:55P. Dvorak1.531351131V. Nadvornik2.3815117113WOct 2 · 11:55P. Dvorak2.386121111113M. Cerny1.5311148782LOct 2 · 10:55P. Dvorak2.754118121D. Vesecky1.4011611143LSep 30 · 17:53P. Dvorak2.108070M. Brozek1.671111113WSep 30 · 16:20M. Brozek1.5371131172P. Dvorak2.38118118113WSep 30 · 15:50P. Benes1.8088111462P. Dvorak1.911111412113WSep 30 · 14:50P. Dvorak1.6111611113D. Hyza2.20211451
J. Kocab10
WOct 4 · 12:25V. Nadvornik2.257580J. Kocab1.571111113WOct 4 · 11:25J. Kocab1.3611111110113J. Benak3.0071381282WOct 2 · 10:40J. Kocab1.73111195113J. Benak2.0044111172WOct 2 · 09:25V. Nadvornik1.835111110102J. Kocab1.83115312123WOct 2 · 08:25J. Kocab1.4411116113M. Brozek2.63371161WOct 2 · 06:55J. Benak1.83711691J. Kocab1.8311911113LOct 1 · 14:03J. Kocab1.40411111052D. Vesecky2.75116712113LOct 1 · 12:55J. Kocab3.0081030M. Cerny1.361112113LOct 1 · 11:55J. Kocab3.409910D. Bochnak1.301111113WOct 1 · 10:55J. Kocab1.44471111113D. Vesecky2.6311117272
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