TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Dvorak vs Martin Cerny 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111214118117118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched: 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Dvorak above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 99 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Martin Cerny at 60.8%
99 points played in total.
H2H Petr Dvorak 2–1 Martin Cerny Martin Cerny has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4860.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1665 vs Cerny 1762
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 60% vs Cerny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 60% vs Cerny 40%
Dvorak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -2 · Cerny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Cerny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 2.375 / Cerny 1.533
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Cerny)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13229912
Dvorak2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 5 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 6
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Cerny1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 170 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it97% 84 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it85% 123 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDvorak2wins
AwayCerny1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDvorak leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorakn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayCerny33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak0Cerny3n = 3Cerny took 3 of 3
S2Dvorak1Cerny2n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
S3Dvorak2Cerny1n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricDvorakCernyD − CBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match37.039.3−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 62 vs 506 / 87251.6%58%32 / 62 vs 506 / 872Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernyDvorak 2.38/Cerny 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 2 · 11:55P. Dvorak516121111113M. Cerny4811148782
WSep 4 · 16:25P. Dvorak3731211113M. Cerny361110961
LJul 20 · 08:25P. Dvorak2361070M. Cerny341112113
P. Dvorak10
LOct 2 · 12:55P. Dvorak1.531351131V. Nadvornik2.3815117113LOct 2 · 10:55P. Dvorak2.754118121D. Vesecky1.4011611143LSep 30 · 17:53P. Dvorak2.108070M. Brozek1.671111113WSep 30 · 16:20M. Brozek1.5371131172P. Dvorak2.38118118113WSep 30 · 15:50P. Benes1.8088111462P. Dvorak1.911111412113WSep 30 · 14:50P. Dvorak1.6111611113D. Hyza2.20211451WSep 27 · 18:34P. Dvorak1.801111113J. Benak1.915740WSep 27 · 17:25J. Kocab2.20691161P. Dvorak1.6111115113WSep 27 · 16:25P. Dvorak1.831111113J. Benak1.839780LSep 27 · 14:55M. Prochazka1.8311711113P. Dvorak1.83911771
M. Cerny10
WOct 2 · 11:25V. Nadvornik2.25133941M. Cerny1.57111111113LOct 1 · 14:35D. Bochnak1.91118611133M. Cerny1.80211115112WOct 1 · 12:55J. Kocab3.0081030M. Cerny1.361112113WOct 1 · 12:25D. Vesecky2.1071111462M. Cerny1.67116811113LOct 1 · 11:25M. Cerny1.83111155102D. Bochnak1.83361111123LOct 1 · 10:09V. Nadvornik2.0011611113M. Cerny1.73911271LOct 1 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.83711119113M. Cerny1.8311691192LOct 1 · 08:25M. Cerny1.5795100V. Nadvornik2.251111123WOct 1 · 06:55D. Vesecky2.10713771M. Cerny1.67111111113LSep 28 · 13:55M. Cerny1.73951181P. Vanek2.0011118113
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