TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Dvorak vs David Vesecky 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111168111214––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched: 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Vesecky to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Dvorak above · David Vesecky below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 77 set 4, 12-14 · our read held David Vesecky at 66.3%
77 points played in total.
H2H Petr Dvorak 0–3 David Vesecky Petr Dvorak has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3966.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 5.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vesecky
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Vesecky
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1650 vs Vesecky 1638
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 80% vs Vesecky 20%
Dvorak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 70% vs Vesecky 40%
Dvorak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -1 · Vesecky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Vesecky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vesecky form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 2.75 / Vesecky 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Vesecky)-5.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13229925
Dvorak2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 5 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 6
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Vesecky1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 93 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it77% 62 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDvorak0wins
AwayVesecky3wins
Vesecky leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorakn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayVesecky100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak0Vesecky3n = 3Vesecky took 3 of 3
S2Dvorak1Vesecky2n = 3Vesecky took 2 of 3
S3Dvorak0Vesecky3n = 3Vesecky took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricDvorakVeseckyD − VBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match28.337.3−9.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakVeseckyBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 61 vs 349 / 64050.8%54.5%31 / 61 vs 349 / 640Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VeseckyDvorak 2.75/Vesecky 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Vesecky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vesecky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 2 · 10:55P. Dvorak354118121D. Vesecky4211611143
LJul 30 · 17:25P. Dvorak3013980D. Vesecky371511113
LAug 24 · 09:25P. Dvorak209380D. Vesecky331111113
P. Dvorak10
WOct 2 · 11:55P. Dvorak2.386121111113M. Cerny1.5311148782LSep 30 · 17:53P. Dvorak2.108070M. Brozek1.671111113WSep 30 · 16:20M. Brozek1.5371131172P. Dvorak2.38118118113WSep 30 · 15:50P. Benes1.8088111462P. Dvorak1.911111412113WSep 30 · 14:50P. Dvorak1.6111611113D. Hyza2.20211451WSep 27 · 18:34P. Dvorak1.801111113J. Benak1.915740WSep 27 · 17:25J. Kocab2.20691161P. Dvorak1.6111115113WSep 27 · 16:25P. Dvorak1.831111113J. Benak1.839780LSep 27 · 14:55M. Prochazka1.8311711113P. Dvorak1.83911771LSep 26 · 22:28M. Brozek1.53111184113P. Dvorak2.3888111132
D. Vesecky10
WOct 1 · 14:03J. Kocab1.40411111052D. Vesecky2.75116712113LOct 1 · 13:25D. Bochnak1.50141110113D. Vesecky2.501281251LOct 1 · 12:25D. Vesecky2.1071111462M. Cerny1.67116811113LOct 1 · 10:55J. Kocab1.44471111113D. Vesecky2.6311117272LOct 1 · 10:38D. Vesecky2.20111112982D. Bochnak1.618131011113WOct 1 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.73118711113V. Nadvornik2.0051111682WOct 1 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.501111113D. Bochnak1.506830LOct 1 · 06:55D. Vesecky2.10713771M. Cerny1.67111111113LSep 25 · 09:58J. Kocab1.331111104113D. Vesecky3.2598121192WSep 25 · 09:25D. Vesecky2.0011911113O. Kadavy1.73811491
Upcoming Matches
P. Dvorak
Nothing scheduled
D. Vesecky
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.