TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vaclav Nadvornik vs Martin Cerny 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311311911411––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:11 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Nadvornik above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 73 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Martin Cerny at 59.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nadvornik 26–33 Martin Cerny Vaclav Nadvornik has won 26 of their 59 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1159.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-33 in 59
Cerny
Correct
gap of 7 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nadvornik 1718 vs Cerny 1767
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nadvornik 40% vs Cerny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nadvornik 50% vs Cerny 30%
Nadvornik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nadvornik -3 · Cerny -1
Nadvornik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Cerny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNadvornik 2.25 / Cerny 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Cerny)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13229888
Nadvornik2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 16 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Cerny1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 170 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it97% 84 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it85% 123 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNadvornik5wins
AwayCerny5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNadvornik71.4%5 of 7
AwayCerny100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nadvornik7Cerny3n = 10Nadvornik took 7 of 10
S2Nadvornik4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Nadvornik4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S4Nadvornik2Cerny4n = 6Cerny took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNadvornikCernyN − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match32.934.9−2.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNadvornikCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 316 vs 505 / 87054.8%58.1%173 / 316 vs 505 / 870Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernyNadvornik 2.25/Cerny 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 10:09V. Nadvornik3911611113M. Cerny29911271
WOct 1 · 08:25V. Nadvornik341111123M. Cerny2495100
WMay 17 · 18:15V. Nadvornik4111811113M. Cerny33711961
LMay 17 · 16:25V. Nadvornik361191061M. Cerny4391112113
LMay 14 · 18:25V. Nadvornik33118681M. Cerny3961111113
LMay 14 · 17:25V. Nadvornik2511680M. Cerny351311113
WMay 13 · 10:40V. Nadvornik47121275113M. Cerny501010111182
LMay 13 · 08:25V. Nadvornik134450M. Cerny331111113
LMay 9 · 14:55V. Nadvornik28811721M. Cerny4111811113
WApr 30 · 13:48V. Nadvornik331111113M. Cerny226880
V. Nadvornik10
LOct 2 · 10:10V. Nadvornik1.482680M. Brozek2.451111113LOct 2 · 09:25V. Nadvornik1.835111110102J. Kocab1.83115312123LOct 2 · 07:55J. Benak1.801111911113V. Nadvornik1.9113811592WOct 2 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3891060V. Nadvornik1.531112113WOct 1 · 10:09V. Nadvornik2.0011611113M. Cerny1.73911271LOct 1 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.73118711113V. Nadvornik2.0051111682WOct 1 · 08:25M. Cerny1.5795100V. Nadvornik2.251111123LOct 1 · 07:25V. Nadvornik2.388840D. Bochnak1.531111113WSep 22 · 14:05V. Nadvornik1.6091211113P. Benes2.201110861WSep 22 · 12:20V. Nadvornik2.0011115113J. Kocab1.73961181
M. Cerny10
LOct 2 · 11:55P. Dvorak2.386121111113M. Cerny1.5311148782LOct 1 · 14:35D. Bochnak1.91118611133M. Cerny1.80211115112WOct 1 · 12:55J. Kocab3.0081030M. Cerny1.361112113WOct 1 · 12:25D. Vesecky2.1071111462M. Cerny1.67116811113LOct 1 · 11:25M. Cerny1.83111155102D. Bochnak1.83361111123LOct 1 · 10:09V. Nadvornik2.0011611113M. Cerny1.73911271LOct 1 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.83711119113M. Cerny1.8311691192LOct 1 · 08:25M. Cerny1.5795100V. Nadvornik2.251111123WOct 1 · 06:55D. Vesecky2.10713771M. Cerny1.67111111113LSep 28 · 13:55M. Cerny1.73951181P. Vanek2.0011118113
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