TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Dvorak vs Vaclav Nadvornik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1315511117311––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:46 and never touched: 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timePetr Dvorak to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Dvorak above · Vaclav Nadvornik below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 76 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Petr Dvorak at 60.8%
76 points played in total.
H2H Petr Dvorak 0–1 Vaclav Nadvornik Petr Dvorak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4660.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1655 vs Nadvornik 1727
Nadvornik
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 60% vs Nadvornik 20%
Dvorak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 70% vs Nadvornik 40%
Dvorak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +1 · Nadvornik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Dvorak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadvornik form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.533 / Nadvornik 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Dvorak)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13229937
Dvorak1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite81% won 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Nadvornik2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 16 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDvorak0wins
AwayNadvornik1wins
Nadvornik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDvorakNadvornikD − NBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match32.044.0−12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakNadvornikBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 63 vs 175 / 31950.8%54.9%32 / 63 vs 175 / 319Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.53/Nadvornik 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 2 · 12:55P. Dvorak321351131V. Nadvornik4415117113
P. Dvorak10
WOct 2 · 11:55P. Dvorak2.386121111113M. Cerny1.5311148782LOct 2 · 10:55P. Dvorak2.754118121D. Vesecky1.4011611143LSep 30 · 17:53P. Dvorak2.108070M. Brozek1.671111113WSep 30 · 16:20M. Brozek1.5371131172P. Dvorak2.38118118113WSep 30 · 15:50P. Benes1.8088111462P. Dvorak1.911111412113WSep 30 · 14:50P. Dvorak1.6111611113D. Hyza2.20211451WSep 27 · 18:34P. Dvorak1.801111113J. Benak1.915740WSep 27 · 17:25J. Kocab2.20691161P. Dvorak1.6111115113WSep 27 · 16:25P. Dvorak1.831111113J. Benak1.839780LSep 27 · 14:55M. Prochazka1.8311711113P. Dvorak1.83911771
V. Nadvornik10
WOct 2 · 12:25D. Vesecky1.8071411532V. Nadvornik1.911112911113LOct 2 · 11:25V. Nadvornik2.25133941M. Cerny1.57111111113LOct 2 · 10:10V. Nadvornik1.482680M. Brozek2.451111113LOct 2 · 09:25V. Nadvornik1.835111110102J. Kocab1.83115312123LOct 2 · 07:55J. Benak1.801111911113V. Nadvornik1.9113811592WOct 2 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3891060V. Nadvornik1.531112113WOct 1 · 10:09V. Nadvornik2.0011611113M. Cerny1.73911271LOct 1 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.73118711113V. Nadvornik2.0051111682WOct 1 · 08:25M. Cerny1.5795100V. Nadvornik2.251111123LOct 1 · 07:25V. Nadvornik2.388840D. Bochnak1.531111113
Upcoming Matches
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V. Nadvornik
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