TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Vesecky vs Vaclav Nadvornik 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111412119511311
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:23 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Vesecky above · Vaclav Nadvornik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 94 set 5, 3-11 · our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H David Vesecky 26–22 Vaclav Nadvornik Vaclav Nadvornik has won 22 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2354.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vesecky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-22 in 48
Vesecky
Wrong
gap of 4 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesecky 1638 vs Nadvornik 1708
Nadvornik
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesecky 40% vs Nadvornik 20%
Vesecky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesecky 40% vs Nadvornik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesecky +2 · Nadvornik -4
Nadvornik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Nadvornik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadvornik form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesecky 1.80 / Nadvornik 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Nadvornik)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13229895
Vesecky1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 93 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it77% 62 of 81
Nadvornik1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 16 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVesecky7wins
AwayNadvornik3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVesecky leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVesecky66.7%4 of 6
AwayNadvornik25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesecky6Nadvornik4n = 10Vesecky took 6 of 10
S2Vesecky6Nadvornik4n = 10Vesecky took 6 of 10
S3Vesecky5Nadvornik5n = 10split evenly
S4Vesecky4Nadvornik4n = 8split evenly
S5Vesecky4Nadvornik1n = 5Vesecky took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeseckyNadvornikV − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.338.1+3.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeseckyNadvornikBasisWin rate · lifetime349 / 640 vs 173 / 31754.5%54.6%349 / 640 vs 173 / 317Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NadvornikVesecky 1.80/Nadvornik 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nadvornik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 08:55D. Vesecky48118711113V. Nadvornik4151111682
LMay 23 · 12:55D. Vesecky311081121V. Nadvornik3812114113
WMay 21 · 13:25D. Vesecky48951112113V. Nadvornik40111111072
WMay 20 · 10:25D. Vesecky491011115123V. Nadvornik41126211102
WMay 20 · 09:25D. Vesecky351212113V. Nadvornik29101090
WMay 17 · 16:55D. Vesecky43111110113V. Nadvornik35981261
LMay 13 · 08:55D. Vesecky35116991V. Nadvornik3961111113
WMay 9 · 16:55D. Vesecky331111113V. Nadvornik208390
LApr 16 · 10:20D. Vesecky4211135762V. Nadvornik517111111113
WApr 14 · 10:25D. Vesecky49711911113V. Nadvornik4711711992
D. Vesecky10
WOct 2 · 13:25M. Cerny1.678640D. Vesecky2.101111113WOct 2 · 10:55P. Dvorak2.754118121D. Vesecky1.4011611143WOct 1 · 14:03J. Kocab1.40411111052D. Vesecky2.75116712113LOct 1 · 13:25D. Bochnak1.50141110113D. Vesecky2.501281251LOct 1 · 12:25D. Vesecky2.1071111462M. Cerny1.67116811113LOct 1 · 10:55J. Kocab1.44471111113D. Vesecky2.6311117272LOct 1 · 10:38D. Vesecky2.20111112982D. Bochnak1.618131011113WOct 1 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.73118711113V. Nadvornik2.0051111682WOct 1 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.501111113D. Bochnak1.506830LOct 1 · 06:55D. Vesecky2.10713771M. Cerny1.67111111113
V. Nadvornik10
WOct 2 · 12:55P. Dvorak1.531351131V. Nadvornik2.3815117113LOct 2 · 11:25V. Nadvornik2.25133941M. Cerny1.57111111113LOct 2 · 10:10V. Nadvornik1.482680M. Brozek2.451111113LOct 2 · 09:25V. Nadvornik1.835111110102J. Kocab1.83115312123LOct 2 · 07:55J. Benak1.801111911113V. Nadvornik1.9113811592WOct 2 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3891060V. Nadvornik1.531112113WOct 1 · 10:09V. Nadvornik2.0011611113M. Cerny1.73911271LOct 1 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.73118711113V. Nadvornik2.0051111682WOct 1 · 08:25M. Cerny1.5795100V. Nadvornik2.251111123LOct 1 · 07:25V. Nadvornik2.388840D. Bochnak1.531111113
Upcoming Matches
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