TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Vesecky vs Michal Brozek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1189117111111012
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:15 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Vesecky to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Vesecky above · Michal Brozek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-1
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 91 set 5, 10-12 · our read held David Vesecky at 60.5%
91 points played in total.
H2H David Vesecky 44–18 Michal Brozek Michal Brozek has won 18 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1560.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vesecky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
44-18 in 62
Vesecky
Wrong
gap of 26 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesecky 1639 vs Brozek 1616
Vesecky
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesecky 40% vs Brozek 0%
Vesecky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesecky 40% vs Brozek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesecky +2 · Brozek -5
Brozek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Vesecky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesecky 1.571 / Brozek 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Vesecky)-3.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13261875
Vesecky1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 93 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it77% 63 of 82
Brozek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 63 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back11% 9 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVesecky7wins
AwayBrozek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVesecky leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVesecky75%3 of 4
AwayBrozek33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesecky4Brozek6n = 10Brozek took 6 of 10
S2Vesecky5Brozek5n = 10split evenly
S3Vesecky7Brozek3n = 10Vesecky took 7 of 10
S4Vesecky5Brozek2n = 7Vesecky took 5 of 7
S5Vesecky3Brozek1n = 4Vesecky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeseckyBrozekV − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.936.2+2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeseckyBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 649 vs 519 / 100254.2%51.8%352 / 649 vs 519 / 1002Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VeseckyVesecky 1.57/Brozek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Vesecky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 10:00D. Vesecky27511561M. Brozek4011711113
WSep 1 · 08:25D. Vesecky529111011113M. Brozek3611212652
WAug 20 · 13:50D. Vesecky4112711113M. Brozek311011641
WAug 20 · 11:50D. Vesecky48861112113M. Brozek45111181052
WAug 13 · 18:40D. Vesecky531061111153M. Brozek52121188132
LAug 13 · 14:55D. Vesecky4611911782M. Brozek51911911113
WAug 7 · 17:25D. Vesecky331111113M. Brozek247890
WJul 29 · 14:55D. Vesecky331111113M. Brozek208390
LJul 29 · 11:25D. Vesecky1510230M. Brozek341211113
WJul 4 · 08:25D. Vesecky4181111113M. Brozek29118641
D. Vesecky10
WOct 8 · 11:20D. Vesecky2.631111113J. Kocab1.448590WOct 8 · 10:20D. Vesecky2.251111113M. Cerny1.576760LOct 7 · 17:54M. Cerny1.571111113D. Vesecky2.259990LOct 7 · 17:25M. Cerny1.5712411113D. Vesecky2.251011871LOct 7 · 16:25D. Vesecky2.257660M. Stusek1.571111113LOct 7 · 14:55T. Flicek1.80911911113D. Vesecky1.9111811962LOct 7 · 14:23D. Bochnak1.501115113D. Vesecky2.5091360LOct 7 · 12:55D. Vesecky2.38611581D. Bochnak1.5311911113WOct 7 · 11:55D. Vesecky1.731511113V. Nadvornik2.0013950WOct 7 · 10:55D. Vesecky2.101261211133M. Cerny1.6710111013112
M. Brozek10
LOct 8 · 11:50M. Cerny1.2261111113M. Brozek4.00114341LOct 8 · 10:50M. Brozek2.6361480J. Kocab1.441116113LOct 6 · 13:25M. Brozek1.67118681J. Vonasek2.1091111113LOct 6 · 12:50P. Benes1.8011125113M. Brozek1.918101191LOct 6 · 11:50M. Brozek1.44611121162J. Vonasek2.631191013113WOct 6 · 10:20A. Langer2.7510111091M. Brozek1.4012912113LOct 4 · 22:25M. Brozek1.8311981182M. Kulisek1.83911119113WOct 4 · 21:25O. Fiklik2.388150M. Brozek1.531111113WOct 4 · 20:25M. Brozek1.611111113M. Kulisek2.206530WOct 4 · 18:55A. Kosacky1.5761070M. Brozek2.251112113
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