TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Brozek vs Jan Vonasek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
61111912101113611
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:46 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Brozek to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 100 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Michal Brozek at 65.7%
100 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 56–30 Jan Vonasek Jan Vonasek has won 30 of their 86 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4665.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Brozek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
56-30 in 86
Brozek
Wrong
gap of 26 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1670 vs Vonasek 1649
Brozek
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 80% vs Vonasek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 60% vs Vonasek 80%
Vonasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek +1 · Vonasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Brozek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 1.444 / Vonasek 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Brozek)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251712
Brozek1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 142 of 246
Up 2–0, closes it86% 82 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it77% 111 of 144
Vonasek2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 66 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek5wins
AwayVonasek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek80%4 of 5
AwayVonasek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Brozek3Vonasek7n = 10Vonasek took 7 of 10
S3Brozek5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Brozek2Vonasek4n = 6Vonasek took 4 of 6
S5Brozek3Vonasek1n = 4Brozek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekVonasekB − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.438.3−1.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime523 / 1005 vs 362 / 72552%49.9%523 / 1005 vs 362 / 725Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekBrozek 1.44/Vonasek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 09:25M. Brozek331111113J. Vonasek196670
LAug 23 · 19:25M. Brozek2781180J. Vonasek351113113
WAug 10 · 08:55M. Brozek49129116113J. Vonasek47101161192
LAug 3 · 11:55M. Brozek238870J. Vonasek331111113
LJul 25 · 21:25M. Brozek2110560J. Vonasek341211113
LJul 24 · 10:55M. Brozek3957111152J. Vonasek49111179113
LJul 16 · 19:55M. Brozek281110251J. Vonasek4061211113
WJul 13 · 20:25M. Brozek47101115113J. Vonasek391281361
WJul 12 · 18:50M. Brozek45117115113J. Vonasek4671191182
WJul 8 · 14:50M. Brozek52131189113J. Vonasek41111111172
M. Brozek10
LOct 6 · 12:50P. Benes1.8011125113M. Brozek1.918101191WOct 6 · 10:20A. Langer2.7510111091M. Brozek1.4012912113LOct 4 · 22:25M. Brozek1.8311981182M. Kulisek1.83911119113WOct 4 · 21:25O. Fiklik2.388150M. Brozek1.531111113WOct 4 · 20:25M. Brozek1.611111113M. Kulisek2.206530WOct 4 · 18:55A. Kosacky1.5761070M. Brozek2.251112113LOct 3 · 21:58M. Brozek1.73811961O. Fiklik2.0011511113LOct 3 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0011118113M. Brozek1.73471191WOct 3 · 20:25M. Brozek1.53811119113O. Fiklik2.3811731142LOct 3 · 18:55A. Kosacky1.8011911113M. Brozek1.91911831
J. Vonasek10
LOct 6 · 12:20A. Langer2.631111113J. Vonasek1.448980LOct 6 · 10:50J. Vonasek2.75138661P. Benes1.40111111113WOct 5 · 14:35J. Vonasek1.3011123123M. Filipek3.4071011101WOct 5 · 12:55O. Fiklik1.83611714102J. Vonasek1.831191112123WOct 5 · 12:25A. Kral2.2511111411142J. Vonasek1.57813166163WOct 5 · 11:25J. Vonasek1.441112123M. Filipek2.63810100WOct 4 · 10:04M. Sulc1.954480J. Vonasek1.751111113WOct 4 · 08:50P. Rissky2.109111161J. Vonasek1.6711813113LOct 4 · 07:50J. Vonasek1.5057100M. Sulc2.501111123WOct 4 · 06:20A. Langer2.388850J. Vonasek1.531111113
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