TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Kral vs Jan Vonasek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118111314161161416
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:21 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kral above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 14-16
Point 120 set 5, 14-16 · our read held Jan Vonasek at 61.7%
120 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kral 0–1 Jan Vonasek Adam Kral has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2161.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vonasek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kral 1483 vs Vonasek 1645
Vonasek
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kral 80% vs Vonasek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kral 50% vs Vonasek 80%
Vonasek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kral +4 · Vonasek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Vonasek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKral 2.25 / Vonasek 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Vonasek)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13245946
Kral2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 89 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back27% 29 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 54
Vonasek1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 79 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it81% 57 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKral0wins
AwayVonasek1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderVonasek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKralVonasekK − VBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match61.059.0+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKralVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime415 / 793 vs 360 / 72252.3%49.9%415 / 793 vs 360 / 722Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekKral 2.25/Vonasek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 5 · 12:25A. Kral6111111411142J. Vonasek59813166163
A. Kral10
LOct 5 · 13:25M. Filipek1.571111113A. Kral2.259830WOct 5 · 10:55O. Fiklik1.578670A. Kral2.251111113WOct 5 · 10:33M. Filipek1.61641151A. Kral2.2011117113WOct 5 · 09:25A. Kral2.25101511113P. Chlumsky1.571213781WOct 5 · 07:55F. Marat1.8387110A. Kral1.831111133LOct 5 · 07:25M. Filipek1.7311611113A. Kral2.00811891WOct 3 · 09:59J. Dvorak1.671163101A. Kral2.1081111123LOct 3 · 08:55A. Kral2.1071151292P. Chlumsky1.671151110113LOct 3 · 07:55A. Kral2.2026100Z. Zahradka1.611111123LOct 3 · 06:55A. Kral2.10611771J. Dvorak1.6711811113
J. Vonasek10
WOct 5 · 12:55O. Fiklik1.83611714102J. Vonasek1.831191112123WOct 5 · 11:25J. Vonasek1.441112123M. Filipek2.63810100WOct 4 · 10:04M. Sulc1.954480J. Vonasek1.751111113WOct 4 · 08:50P. Rissky2.109111161J. Vonasek1.6711813113LOct 4 · 07:50J. Vonasek1.5057100M. Sulc2.501111123WOct 4 · 06:20A. Langer2.388850J. Vonasek1.531111113WOct 1 · 14:09J. Vonasek1.441111113A. Langer2.635570LOct 1 · 12:20L. Moravec3.00871212113J. Vonasek1.361111101092WOct 1 · 11:50A. Langer2.50111110592J. Vonasek1.50841211113WOct 1 · 10:50J. Vonasek1.6111116113M. Filipek2.20891181
Upcoming Matches
A. Kral
Nothing scheduled
J. Vonasek
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