TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Filipek vs Adam Kral 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611411117511––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 66 set 4, 5-11
66 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 50–40 Adam Kral Adam Kral has won 40 of their 90 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Filipek beat Kral 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 1.615 / Kral 2.20
TT Cup · #13248043
Filipek1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 51 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Kral2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog44% won 89 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back27% 29 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek7wins
AwayKral3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFilipek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek87.5%7 of 8
AwayKraln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek8Kral2n = 10Filipek took 8 of 10
S2Filipek6Kral4n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S3Filipek6Kral4n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S4Filipek4Kral3n = 7Filipek took 4 of 7
S5Filipek2Kral2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekKralF − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.840.2+2.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekKralBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 609 vs 413 / 79044.8%52.3%273 / 609 vs 413 / 790Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekFilipek 1.61/Kral 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
1–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 07:25M. Filipek3911611113A. Kral36811891
WSep 29 · 10:30M. Filipek361312113A. Kral30111090
WSep 29 · 08:25M. Filipek331111113A. Kral228860
LSep 23 · 10:30M. Filipek4211118392A. Kral41261111113
LSep 23 · 09:25M. Filipek34911861A. Kral4111811113
WSep 21 · 12:55M. Filipek5811111311123A. Kral54971513102
WSep 17 · 12:55M. Filipek361111143A. Kral2796120
WSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek52148811113A. Kral51121111982
WSep 14 · 08:25M. Filipek44111111113A. Kral35913761
LSep 4 · 12:25M. Filipek5448171962A. Kral6511111517113
M. Filipek10
WOct 5 · 08:55F. Marat1.733111210112M. Filipek2.001181012133LOct 5 · 08:25P. Chlumsky1.61119811113M. Filipek2.2031111382WOct 5 · 07:25M. Filipek1.7311611113A. Kral2.00811891LOct 1 · 13:38M. Filipek1.738560L. Moravec2.001111113LOct 1 · 12:50M. Filipek4.338760A. Langer1.201111113WOct 1 · 11:20L. Moravec2.00981171M. Filipek1.7311119113LOct 1 · 10:50J. Vonasek1.6111116113M. Filipek2.20891181WSep 30 · 14:08R. Jamrich1.839811121M. Filipek1.8311116143LSep 30 · 12:55P. Chlumsky2.0011118113M. Filipek1.73391151LSep 30 · 12:25F. Marat1.7311811113M. Filipek2.00911781
A. Kral10
WOct 5 · 10:55O. Fiklik1.578670A. Kral2.251111113WOct 5 · 09:25A. Kral2.25101511113P. Chlumsky1.571213781WOct 5 · 07:55F. Marat1.8387110A. Kral1.831111133LOct 5 · 07:25M. Filipek1.7311611113A. Kral2.00811891WOct 3 · 09:59J. Dvorak1.671163101A. Kral2.1081111123LOct 3 · 08:55A. Kral2.1071151292P. Chlumsky1.671151110113LOct 3 · 07:55A. Kral2.2026100Z. Zahradka1.611111123LOct 3 · 06:55A. Kral2.10611771J. Dvorak1.6711811113LOct 2 · 17:20A. Kral2.0211470J. Dvorak1.701311113LOct 2 · 16:20A. Kral2.255111081J. Melichar1.5711712113
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