TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Marat vs Martin Filipek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311118121010121113
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:53 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Marat to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Marat above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 101 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Filip Marat at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Filip Marat 23–11 Martin Filipek Martin Filipek has won 11 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5354.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Marat
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-11 in 34
Marat
Wrong
gap of 12 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marat 1418 vs Filipek 1522
Filipek
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marat 60% vs Filipek 40%
Marat
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marat 40% vs Filipek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marat -2 · Filipek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Marat) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarat 1.727 / Filipek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marat)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13246099
Marat1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 25 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Filipek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 70 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back23% 21 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarat6wins
AwayFilipek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarat leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarat100%4 of 4
AwayFilipek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marat4Filipek6n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S2Marat5Filipek5n = 10split evenly
S3Marat6Filipek4n = 10Marat took 6 of 10
S4Marat4Filipek2n = 6Marat took 4 of 6
S5Marat2Filipek1n = 3Marat took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaratFilipekM − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.737.0+0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaratFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 515 vs 272 / 60845.1%44.7%232 / 515 vs 272 / 608Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaratMarat 1.73/Filipek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marat · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 12:25F. Marat4111811113M. Filipek35911781
LSep 29 · 07:25F. Marat173680M. Filipek331111113
LSep 17 · 14:40F. Marat224990M. Filipek331111113
LSep 17 · 10:55F. Marat45711511112M. Filipek52118119133
WSep 14 · 07:25F. Marat46911114113M. Filipek4111851162
WAug 19 · 11:55F. Marat561281312113M. Filipek491411111032
WJul 31 · 09:25F. Marat331111113M. Filipek189540
LJul 20 · 14:25F. Marat4181112101M. Filipek46111310123
WJul 20 · 12:55F. Marat4111118113M. Filipek35991161
WJul 17 · 09:58F. Marat351113113M. Filipek2891180
F. Marat10
LOct 5 · 07:55F. Marat1.8387110A. Kral1.831111133LOct 5 · 06:55F. Marat2.501011491P. Chlumsky1.5012711113WSep 30 · 14:39P. Chlumsky1.44791181F. Marat2.6311117113WSep 30 · 13:25R. Jamrich1.831011115132F. Marat1.83125911153WSep 30 · 12:25F. Marat1.7311811113M. Filipek2.00911781LSep 29 · 14:00P. Chlumsky1.4411138113F. Marat2.638111181LSep 29 · 12:55F. Balcar1.83101111113F. Marat1.83127881WSep 29 · 12:25L. Moravec1.73691891F. Marat2.00111116113LSep 29 · 11:25F. Marat2.50712951P. Chlumsky1.50111011113LSep 29 · 10:00F. Marat1.836151091J. Srnka1.83111312113
M. Filipek10
LOct 5 · 08:25P. Chlumsky1.61119811113M. Filipek2.2031111382WOct 5 · 07:25M. Filipek1.7311611113A. Kral2.00811891LOct 1 · 13:38M. Filipek1.738560L. Moravec2.001111113LOct 1 · 12:50M. Filipek4.338760A. Langer1.201111113WOct 1 · 11:20L. Moravec2.00981171M. Filipek1.7311119113LOct 1 · 10:50J. Vonasek1.6111116113M. Filipek2.20891181WSep 30 · 14:08R. Jamrich1.839811121M. Filipek1.8311116143LSep 30 · 12:55P. Chlumsky2.0011118113M. Filipek1.73391151LSep 30 · 12:25F. Marat1.7311811113M. Filipek2.00911781LSep 30 · 11:25M. Filipek1.731111871R. Jamrich2.0081311113
Upcoming Matches
F. Marat
Nothing scheduled
M. Filipek
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