TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Vonasek vs Pavel Benes 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311811611611––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched: 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 77 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Pavel Benes at 67.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 9–17 Pavel Benes Jan Vonasek has won 9 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4067.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-17 in 26
Benes
Correct
gap of 8 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vonasek 1660 vs Benes 1685
Benes
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vonasek 100% vs Benes 40%
Vonasek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vonasek 80% vs Benes 50%
Vonasek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vonasek +6 · Benes +2
Vonasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 2.75 / Benes 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Benes)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251696
Vonasek2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 66 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 57
Benes1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 30)
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 77 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVonasek3wins
AwayBenes7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasek40%2 of 5
AwayBenes80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S2Vonasek1Benes9n = 10Benes took 9 of 10
S3Vonasek2Benes8n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S4Vonasek2Benes4n = 6Benes took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricVonasekBenesV − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match30.838.8−8.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 724 vs 263 / 54850%48%362 / 724 vs 263 / 548Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesVonasek 2.75/Benes 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 13:50J. Vonasek3711411113P. Benes36811891
LSep 29 · 12:50J. Vonasek216690P. Benes331111113
WAug 21 · 10:35J. Vonasek47414711113P. Benes41111211342
LAug 21 · 06:55J. Vonasek204970P. Benes331111113
LAug 13 · 10:04J. Vonasek135530P. Benes331111113
WAug 13 · 07:25J. Vonasek551311119113P. Benes50111361192
LAug 10 · 10:05J. Vonasek31135941P. Benes44111111113
LAug 10 · 06:55J. Vonasek34129581P. Benes43101111113
LJul 25 · 10:29J. Vonasek28113861P. Benes4291111113
LJul 25 · 08:55J. Vonasek228680P. Benes331111113
J. Vonasek10
WOct 6 · 11:50M. Brozek1.44611121162J. Vonasek2.631191013113WOct 5 · 14:35J. Vonasek1.3011123123M. Filipek3.4071011101WOct 5 · 12:55O. Fiklik1.83611714102J. Vonasek1.831191112123WOct 5 · 12:25A. Kral2.2511111411142J. Vonasek1.57813166163WOct 5 · 11:25J. Vonasek1.441112123M. Filipek2.63810100WOct 4 · 10:04M. Sulc1.954480J. Vonasek1.751111113WOct 4 · 08:50P. Rissky2.109111161J. Vonasek1.6711813113LOct 4 · 07:50J. Vonasek1.5057100M. Sulc2.501111123WOct 4 · 06:20A. Langer2.388850J. Vonasek1.531111113WOct 1 · 14:09J. Vonasek1.441111113A. Langer2.635570
P. Benes10
WOct 6 · 11:20A. Langer3.007111281P. Benes1.3611714113WSep 30 · 17:25P. Benes1.52111169113D. Hyza2.3597111142WSep 30 · 16:50D. Hyza2.00713140P. Benes1.731115163LSep 30 · 15:50P. Benes1.8088111462P. Dvorak1.911111412113LSep 30 · 14:20M. Brozek1.838121011113P. Benes1.83111012872LSep 29 · 13:50P. Benes1.36811891J. Vonasek3.0011411113WSep 29 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.756690P. Benes1.401111113LSep 29 · 11:50P. Benes1.53138711122V. Hejda Jr2.381111115143WSep 29 · 10:20A. Langer2.75911871P. Benes1.4011911113WSep 28 · 22:25A. Kosacky1.67119161042P. Benes2.103111412113
Upcoming Matches
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