TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Langer vs Pavel Benes 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111171214811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:14 and never touched: 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Langer above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Pavel Benes at 71.6%
81 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 0–5 Pavel Benes Ales Langer has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1471.6%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 1.8pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Benes
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1484 vs Benes 1702
Benes
Correct
both rated, 218 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 20% vs Benes 60%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 20% vs Benes 60%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer -3 · Benes +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 3.00 / Benes 1.363
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Benes)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251910
Langer3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 77 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Benes1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 77 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeLanger0wins
AwayBenes5wins
1 of 5 to a deciderBenes leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLangern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBenes100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer2Benes3n = 5Benes took 3 of 5
S2Langer2Benes3n = 5Benes took 3 of 5
S3Langer1Benes4n = 5Benes took 4 of 5
S4Langer0Benes4n = 4Benes took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricLangerBenesL − BBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match30.041.4−11.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 565 vs 257 / 53747.3%47.9%267 / 565 vs 257 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesLanger 3.00/Benes 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 6 · 11:20A. Langer387111281P. Benes4311714113
LSep 29 · 10:20A. Langer35911871P. Benes4211911113
LJul 8 · 14:20A. Langer3411411352P. Benes49711911113
LJul 8 · 10:55A. Langer175660P. Benes331111113
LDec 2 · 12:25A. Langer26117531P. Benes4071111113
A. Langer10
WOct 6 · 12:20A. Langer2.631111113J. Vonasek1.448980LOct 6 · 10:20A. Langer2.7510111091M. Brozek1.4012912113LOct 4 · 09:34A. Langer1.735116101P. Rissky2.0011911123LOct 4 · 08:20A. Langer2.2098111492M. Sulc1.611111612113WOct 4 · 07:20A. Langer2.00111110113P. Rissky1.73751231LOct 4 · 06:20A. Langer2.388850J. Vonasek1.531111113LOct 2 · 13:23A. Langer4.335820M. Brozek1.201111113LOct 2 · 12:20A. Langer2.201177101O. Fiklik1.6161111123WOct 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.50111611113M. Brozek1.50818781LOct 2 · 10:20A. Langer3.251011951A. Kosacky1.3312711113
P. Benes10
WOct 6 · 12:50P. Benes1.8011125113M. Brozek1.918101191WOct 6 · 10:50J. Vonasek2.75138661P. Benes1.40111111113WSep 30 · 17:25P. Benes1.52111169113D. Hyza2.3597111142WSep 30 · 16:50D. Hyza2.00713140P. Benes1.731115163LSep 30 · 15:50P. Benes1.8088111462P. Dvorak1.911111412113LSep 30 · 14:20M. Brozek1.838121011113P. Benes1.83111012872LSep 29 · 13:50P. Benes1.36811891J. Vonasek3.0011411113WSep 29 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.756690P. Benes1.401111113LSep 29 · 11:50P. Benes1.53138711122V. Hejda Jr2.381111115143WSep 29 · 10:20A. Langer2.75911871P. Benes1.4011911113
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