TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Benes vs Ales Langer 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1121171210––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:35 and never touched: 73.0% is still 73.0%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
73.0%
73.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Ales Langer below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 53 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Pavel Benes at 73.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 5–0 Ales Langer Ales Langer has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Benes beat Langer 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:3573.0%Our read75.2%to break even at 1.33
short by 2.2pp75.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.33 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (69%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Benes
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1712 vs Langer 1505
Benes
Correct
both rated, 207 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 100% vs Langer 20%
Benes
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 60% vs Langer 30%
Benes
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +5 · Langer +1
Benes
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Langer form (20%) is below what odds imply (34%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.33 / Langer 2.90
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Benes)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13254460
Benes1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 77 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Langer2.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 77 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayLanger0wins
1 of 5 to a deciderBenes leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%3 of 3
AwayLangern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes3Langer2n = 5Benes took 3 of 5
S2Benes3Langer2n = 5Benes took 3 of 5
S3Benes4Langer1n = 5Benes took 4 of 5
S4Benes4Langer0n = 4Benes took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBenesLangerB − LBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match41.430.0+11.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesLangerBasisWin rate · lifetime258 / 538 vs 268 / 56648%47.4%258 / 538 vs 268 / 566Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.33/Langer 2.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 6 · 11:20P. Benes4311714113A. Langer387111281
WSep 29 · 10:20P. Benes4211911113A. Langer35911871
WJul 8 · 14:20P. Benes49711911113A. Langer3411411352
WJul 8 · 10:55P. Benes331111113A. Langer175660
WDec 2 · 12:25P. Benes4071111113A. Langer26117531
P. Benes10
WOct 6 · 12:50P. Benes1.8011125113M. Brozek1.918101191WOct 6 · 11:20A. Langer3.007111281P. Benes1.3611714113WOct 6 · 10:50J. Vonasek2.75138661P. Benes1.40111111113WSep 30 · 17:25P. Benes1.52111169113D. Hyza2.3597111142WSep 30 · 16:50D. Hyza2.00713140P. Benes1.731115163LSep 30 · 15:50P. Benes1.8088111462P. Dvorak1.911111412113LSep 30 · 14:20M. Brozek1.838121011113P. Benes1.83111012872LSep 29 · 13:50P. Benes1.36811891J. Vonasek3.0011411113WSep 29 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.756690P. Benes1.401111113LSep 29 · 11:50P. Benes1.53138711122V. Hejda Jr2.381111115143
A. Langer10
WOct 6 · 12:20A. Langer2.631111113J. Vonasek1.448980LOct 6 · 11:20A. Langer3.007111281P. Benes1.3611714113LOct 6 · 10:20A. Langer2.7510111091M. Brozek1.4012912113LOct 4 · 09:34A. Langer1.735116101P. Rissky2.0011911123LOct 4 · 08:20A. Langer2.2098111492M. Sulc1.611111612113WOct 4 · 07:20A. Langer2.00111110113P. Rissky1.73751231LOct 4 · 06:20A. Langer2.388850J. Vonasek1.531111113LOct 2 · 13:23A. Langer4.335820M. Brozek1.201111113LOct 2 · 12:20A. Langer2.201177101O. Fiklik1.6161111123WOct 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.50111611113M. Brozek1.50818781
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