TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Brozek vs Ondrej Fiklik 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117113911114
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Brozek to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · Ondrej Fiklik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 86 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Michal Brozek at 62.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 112–104 Ondrej Fiklik Ondrej Fiklik has won 104 of their 216 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1962.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Brozek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
112-104 in 216
Brozek
Correct
gap of 8 in 216, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1664 vs Fiklik 1547
Brozek
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 40% vs Fiklik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 40% vs Fiklik 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek -1 · Fiklik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Brozek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 1.533 / Fiklik 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Brozek)-3.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13238247
Brozek1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 142 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it87% 83 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it77% 112 of 145
Fiklik2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 107 of 268
Down 0–1, comes back21% 32 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back13% 12 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek9wins
AwayFiklik1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBrozek leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek100%8 of 8
AwayFiklikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek8Fiklik2n = 10Brozek took 8 of 10
S2Brozek8Fiklik2n = 10Brozek took 8 of 10
S3Brozek8Fiklik2n = 10Brozek took 8 of 10
S4Brozek3Fiklik2n = 5Brozek took 3 of 5
S5Brozek2Fiklik1n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekFiklikB − FBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.329.1+10.2per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekFiklikBasisWin rate · lifetime519 / 998 vs 549 / 120652%45.5%519 / 998 vs 549 / 1206Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekBrozek 1.53/Fiklik 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 10:50M. Brozek49117911113O. Fiklik4341111982
WSep 9 · 19:50M. Brozek341112113O. Fiklik2361070
WSep 5 · 20:25M. Brozek4011711113O. Fiklik29311871
WSep 4 · 11:50M. Brozek361114113O. Fiklik2791260
WSep 2 · 21:50M. Brozek331111113O. Fiklik166640
WSep 2 · 18:20M. Brozek521111118113O. Fiklik3851131182
WAug 28 · 11:55M. Brozek331111113O. Fiklik93240
WAug 27 · 19:25M. Brozek3931213113O. Fiklik4011101181
WAug 23 · 21:54M. Brozek331111113O. Fiklik218580
LAug 23 · 19:55M. Brozek4481111682O. Fiklik45115711113
M. Brozek10
LOct 3 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0011118113M. Brozek1.73471191LOct 3 · 18:55A. Kosacky1.8011911113M. Brozek1.91911831WOct 2 · 13:23A. Langer4.335820M. Brozek1.201111113LOct 2 · 12:50M. Brozek2.105780A. Kosacky1.671111113LOct 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.50111611113M. Brozek1.50818781WOct 2 · 10:50O. Fiklik2.3841111982M. Brozek1.53117911113WOct 2 · 10:10V. Nadvornik1.482680M. Brozek2.451111113LOct 2 · 08:55J. Benak1.40541111113M. Brozek2.7511115722LOct 2 · 08:25J. Kocab1.4411116113M. Brozek2.63371161LOct 2 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3891060V. Nadvornik1.531112113
O. Fiklik10
LOct 3 · 20:55A. Kosacky1.361111113O. Fiklik3.007940LOct 3 · 19:25O. Fiklik2.00211651M. Kulisek1.7311811113WOct 2 · 13:48A. Kosacky1.408560O. Fiklik2.751111113WOct 2 · 12:20A. Langer2.201177101O. Fiklik1.6161111123LOct 2 · 11:50A. Kosacky1.4011811113O. Fiklik2.75911971LOct 2 · 10:50O. Fiklik2.3841111982M. Brozek1.53117911113LSep 30 · 09:58J. Vonasek1.91411116133O. Fiklik1.80115711112LSep 30 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.919111051J. Vonasek1.8011512113LSep 30 · 07:55A. Langer2.2011911113O. Fiklik1.61911791LSep 30 · 07:25V. Hejda Jr2.6312811113O. Fiklik1.441011391
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