TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Cerny vs Michal Brozek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611114113114––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:45 and never touched: 79.0% is still 79.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
79.0%
79.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Michal Brozek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 61 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Martin Cerny at 79.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 66–29 Michal Brozek Michal Brozek has won 29 of their 95 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4579.0%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 2.8pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
66-29 in 95
Cerny
Correct
gap of 37 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1700 vs Brozek 1625
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 40% vs Brozek 20%
Cerny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 40% vs Brozek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -1 · Brozek -4
Brozek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Cerny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (40%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.222 / Brozek 4.00
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Cerny)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13261990
Cerny1.22
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 173 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it96% 89 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it84% 126 of 150
Brozek4.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 63 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back11% 9 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny10wins
AwayBrozek0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny100%7 of 7
AwayBrozek0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny7Brozek3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Cerny8Brozek2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S3Cerny10Brozek0n = 10Cerny took 10 of 10
S4Cerny4Brozek0n = 4Cerny took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyBrozekC − BBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.924.5+12.4per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime507 / 875 vs 519 / 100157.9%51.9%507 / 875 vs 519 / 1001Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.22/Brozek 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 19:55M. Cerny331111113M. Brozek173590
WSep 19 · 10:55M. Cerny331111113M. Brozek168530
WAug 10 · 14:00M. Cerny341111123M. Brozek2495100
WAug 10 · 11:25M. Cerny331111113M. Brozek154650
WAug 9 · 21:55M. Cerny44111111113M. Brozek30613741
WAug 9 · 18:20M. Cerny3631111113M. Brozek30117751
WJun 17 · 16:25M. Cerny4291111113M. Brozek29119181
WMay 28 · 13:55M. Cerny331111113M. Brozek239860
WMay 28 · 12:20M. Cerny48691111113M. Brozek4111118472
WMay 24 · 08:25M. Cerny331111113M. Brozek206770
M. Cerny10
LOct 8 · 10:20D. Vesecky2.251111113M. Cerny1.576760WOct 7 · 17:54M. Cerny1.571111113D. Vesecky2.259990WOct 7 · 17:25M. Cerny1.5712411113D. Vesecky2.251011871LOct 7 · 15:55T. Flicek1.801111143M. Cerny1.9169120LOct 7 · 15:25M. Stusek2.00111194113M. Cerny1.7369111182WOct 7 · 13:54M. Cerny1.671111113V. Nadvornik2.103460WOct 7 · 13:25V. Nadvornik2.2532110M. Cerny1.571111133LOct 7 · 12:25M. Cerny1.80113891D. Bochnak1.9171111113LOct 7 · 10:55D. Vesecky2.101261211133M. Cerny1.6710111013112LOct 6 · 22:05P. Vanek1.8011116113M. Cerny1.91941171
M. Brozek10
WOct 8 · 12:20D. Vesecky1.57119711102M. Brozek2.25811111123LOct 8 · 10:50M. Brozek2.6361480J. Kocab1.441116113LOct 6 · 13:25M. Brozek1.67118681J. Vonasek2.1091111113LOct 6 · 12:50P. Benes1.8011125113M. Brozek1.918101191LOct 6 · 11:50M. Brozek1.44611121162J. Vonasek2.631191013113WOct 6 · 10:20A. Langer2.7510111091M. Brozek1.4012912113LOct 4 · 22:25M. Brozek1.8311981182M. Kulisek1.83911119113WOct 4 · 21:25O. Fiklik2.388150M. Brozek1.531111113WOct 4 · 20:25M. Brozek1.611111113M. Kulisek2.206530WOct 4 · 18:55A. Kosacky1.5761070M. Brozek2.251112113
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