TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Vanek vs Martin Cerny 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119114611117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:03 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Vanek above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 70 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Martin Cerny at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vanek 34–22 Martin Cerny Martin Cerny has won 22 of their 56 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vanek beat Cerny 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:0354.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vanek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-22 in 56
Vanek
Correct
gap of 12 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vanek 1695 vs Cerny 1737
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vanek 20% vs Cerny 60%
Cerny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vanek 30% vs Cerny 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vanek -1 · Cerny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Cerny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vanek form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVanek 1.80 / Cerny 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cerny)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13256579
Vanek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 42 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it80% 31 of 39
Cerny1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 52 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back16% 10 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVanek7wins
AwayCerny3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVanek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanek83.3%5 of 6
AwayCerny50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vanek6Cerny4n = 10Vanek took 6 of 10
S2Vanek4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Vanek8Cerny2n = 10Vanek took 8 of 10
S4Vanek6Cerny2n = 8Vanek took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanekCernyV − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.534.7+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanekCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 315 vs 506 / 86952.4%58.2%165 / 315 vs 506 / 869Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernyVanek 1.80/Cerny 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vanek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 19:55P. Vanek45111211113M. Cerny33414961
WOct 4 · 15:55P. Vanek341112113M. Cerny2371060
WSep 28 · 13:55P. Vanek4111118113M. Cerny33951181
LSep 28 · 11:25P. Vanek4111311972M. Cerny50911811113
WJul 13 · 17:55P. Vanek4071111113M. Cerny32117681
WJul 13 · 15:55P. Vanek4211911113M. Cerny32811491
LJul 1 · 17:55P. Vanek29721371M. Cerny44111111113
WJul 1 · 16:25P. Vanek3511211113M. Cerny33911491
WJun 28 · 19:55P. Vanek3851111113M. Cerny34118781
LJun 25 · 17:48P. Vanek206860M. Cerny331111113
P. Vanek10
LOct 6 · 20:55P. Vanek2.501411891D. Bochnak1.5016911113WOct 6 · 19:55P. Vanek2.10111211113M. Cerny1.67414961LOct 6 · 18:55P. Vanek2.385770O. Kadavy1.531111113LOct 4 · 18:38D. Bochnak1.50813611113P. Vanek2.50111111852LOct 4 · 16:55P. Vanek2.5011138872D. Bochnak1.507111111113WOct 4 · 15:55P. Vanek2.001112113M. Cerny1.7371060LOct 4 · 14:55P. Vanek1.80116711102D. Vesecky1.91411114123WSep 28 · 13:55M. Cerny1.73951181P. Vanek2.0011118113LSep 28 · 12:55D. Bochnak1.571111123P. Vanek2.2548100LSep 28 · 12:25O. Kadavy1.57111110113P. Vanek2.25621261
M. Cerny10
WOct 6 · 21:25M. Cerny3.0011711113O. Kadavy1.36711881LOct 6 · 19:55P. Vanek2.10111211113M. Cerny1.67414961LOct 6 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.83911811113M. Cerny1.8311711972WOct 4 · 18:10D. Vesecky1.906611151M. Cerny1.8011114173WOct 4 · 17:25M. Cerny3.00118119113D. Vesecky1.3621111152LOct 4 · 15:55P. Vanek2.001112113M. Cerny1.7371060LOct 4 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.834111110113M. Cerny1.8311951282WOct 2 · 13:55P. Dvorak2.008570M. Cerny1.731111113LOct 2 · 13:25M. Cerny1.678640D. Vesecky2.101111113LSep 28 · 13:55M. Cerny1.73951181P. Vanek2.0011118113
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M. Cerny
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