TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Vanek vs David Bochnak 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1416119811911––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vanek above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 89 set 4, 9-11 · our read held David Bochnak at 65.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vanek 27–50 David Bochnak Petr Vanek has won 27 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:4665.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Bochnak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-50 in 77
Bochnak
Correct
gap of 23 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vanek 1695 vs Bochnak 1856
Bochnak
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vanek 40% vs Bochnak 80%
Bochnak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vanek 30% vs Bochnak 90%
Bochnak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vanek +1 · Bochnak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Bochnak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVanek 2.50 / Bochnak 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Bochnak)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13254089
Vanek2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog55% won 41 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Bochnak1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 134 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it81% 99 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVanek1wins
AwayBochnak9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanek25%1 of 4
AwayBochnak100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vanek4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S2Vanek4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S3Vanek2Bochnak8n = 10Bochnak took 8 of 10
S4Vanek2Bochnak5n = 7Bochnak took 5 of 7
S5Vanek1Bochnak4n = 5Bochnak took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanekBochnakV − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.043.1−6.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanekBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 315 vs 365 / 58752.4%62.2%165 / 315 vs 365 / 587Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakVanek 2.50/Bochnak 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bochnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 20:55P. Vanek421411891D. Bochnak4716911113
LOct 4 · 18:38P. Vanek46111111852D. Bochnak49813611113
LOct 4 · 16:55P. Vanek4711138872D. Bochnak517111111113
LSep 28 · 12:55P. Vanek2248100D. Bochnak341111123
LAug 3 · 18:55P. Vanek219660D. Bochnak331111113
LAug 2 · 20:25P. Vanek3631111742D. Bochnak50119811113
WJul 16 · 15:25P. Vanek45128311113D. Bochnak45101111582
LJul 14 · 18:20P. Vanek51119711132D. Bochnak43411112153
LJul 14 · 15:25P. Vanek2678110D. Bochnak351111133
LJul 13 · 15:25P. Vanek347125101D. Bochnak44111011123
P. Vanek10
WOct 6 · 22:05P. Vanek1.8011116113M. Cerny1.91941171WOct 6 · 19:55P. Vanek2.10111211113M. Cerny1.67414961LOct 6 · 18:55P. Vanek2.385770O. Kadavy1.531111113LOct 4 · 18:38D. Bochnak1.50813611113P. Vanek2.50111111852LOct 4 · 16:55P. Vanek2.5011138872D. Bochnak1.507111111113WOct 4 · 15:55P. Vanek2.001112113M. Cerny1.7371060LOct 4 · 14:55P. Vanek1.80116711102D. Vesecky1.91411114123WSep 28 · 13:55M. Cerny1.73951181P. Vanek2.0011118113LSep 28 · 12:55D. Bochnak1.571111123P. Vanek2.2548100LSep 28 · 12:25O. Kadavy1.57111110113P. Vanek2.25621261
D. Bochnak10
LOct 6 · 22:35O. Kadavy1.73111113113D. Bochnak2.00961571LOct 6 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.73101111113D. Bochnak2.00126791WOct 6 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.83911811113M. Cerny1.8311711972WOct 4 · 18:38D. Bochnak1.50813611113P. Vanek2.50111111852WOct 4 · 16:55P. Vanek2.5011138872D. Bochnak1.507111111113WOct 4 · 16:25D. Vesecky2.633711101D. Bochnak1.4411117123WOct 4 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.834111110113M. Cerny1.8311951282WOct 1 · 14:35D. Bochnak1.91118611133M. Cerny1.80211115112WOct 1 · 13:25D. Bochnak1.50141110113D. Vesecky2.501281251WSep 28 · 12:55D. Bochnak1.571111123P. Vanek2.2548100
Upcoming Matches
P. Vanek
Nothing scheduled
D. Bochnak
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