TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Vanek vs David Vesecky 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1146117111141012
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Vanek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Vanek above · David Vesecky below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 4-3
Point 72 set 5, 4-3 · our read held Petr Vanek at 54.0%
72 points drawn · the score is 15 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Petr Vanek 21–12 David Vesecky David Vesecky has won 12 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vanek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-12 in 33
Vanek
Wrong
gap of 9 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vanek 1696 vs Vesecky 1652
Vanek
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vanek 40% vs Vesecky 60%
Vesecky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vanek 40% vs Vesecky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vanek +1 · Vesecky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vanek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vanek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVanek 1.80 / Vesecky 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vanek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13242564
Vanek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 42 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it82% 31 of 38
Vesecky1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 59 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back24% 18 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVanek6wins
AwayVesecky4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVanek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanek75%3 of 4
AwayVesecky50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vanek4Vesecky6n = 10Vesecky took 6 of 10
S2Vanek4Vesecky6n = 10Vesecky took 6 of 10
S3Vanek6Vesecky4n = 10Vanek took 6 of 10
S4Vanek4Vesecky3n = 7Vanek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanekVeseckyVanek − VeseckyBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.236.5+0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanekVeseckyBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 316 vs 350 / 63953.5%54.8%169 / 316 vs 350 / 639Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VanekVanek 1.80/Vesecky 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vanek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vesecky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 16 · 17:25P. Vanek2571350D. Vesecky371115113
WJul 14 · 15:55P. Vanek4791512113D. Vesecky3911131051
LJul 13 · 17:25P. Vanek162680D. Vesecky331111113
LJul 1 · 16:55P. Vanek323101181D. Vesecky4311129113
WJun 25 · 15:20P. Vanek44111111113D. Vesecky33561391
LJun 24 · 17:25P. Vanek4011101091D. Vesecky4271212113
WJun 23 · 18:25P. Vanek361114113D. Vesecky2441280
WJun 23 · 15:55P. Vanek3851111113D. Vesecky31115961
WJun 21 · 18:35P. Vanek45114127113D. Vesecky41611101132
WJun 21 · 15:25P. Vanek49881111113D. Vesecky4211114882
P. Vanek10
WSep 28 · 13:55M. Cerny1.73951181P. Vanek2.0011118113LSep 28 · 12:55D. Bochnak1.571111123P. Vanek2.2548100LSep 28 · 12:25O. Kadavy1.57111110113P. Vanek2.25621261LSep 28 · 11:25P. Vanek1.7311311972M. Cerny2.00911811113WSep 27 · 22:08O. Fiklik2.2596111212P. Vanek1.571111710113WSep 27 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.50111377112P. Vanek1.509111111133LSep 27 · 20:25P. Vanek1.6111750O. Fiklik2.201311113LSep 27 · 18:55A. Kosacky2.25911111113P. Vanek1.5711981172WSep 22 · 18:23M. Brozek2.10118101182P. Vanek1.67811128113LSep 22 · 17:25P. Vanek1.8081030M. Brozek1.911112113
D. Vesecky10
LOct 2 · 14:25V. Nadvornik1.90111210113D. Vesecky1.808101241WOct 2 · 13:25M. Cerny1.678640D. Vesecky2.101111113LOct 2 · 12:25D. Vesecky1.8071411532V. Nadvornik1.911112911113WOct 2 · 10:55P. Dvorak2.754118121D. Vesecky1.4011611143WOct 1 · 14:03J. Kocab1.40411111052D. Vesecky2.75116712113LOct 1 · 13:25D. Bochnak1.50141110113D. Vesecky2.501281251LOct 1 · 12:25D. Vesecky2.1071111462M. Cerny1.67116811113LOct 1 · 10:55J. Kocab1.44471111113D. Vesecky2.6311117272LOct 1 · 10:38D. Vesecky2.20111112982D. Bochnak1.618131011113WOct 1 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.73118711113V. Nadvornik2.0051111682
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