TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Cerny vs Ondrej Kadavy 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117711118118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:10 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kadavy to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Ondrej Kadavy below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Ondrej Kadavy at 70.4%
74 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 13–32 Ondrej Kadavy Martin Cerny has won 13 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1070.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kadavy
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-32 in 45
Kadavy
Wrong
gap of 19 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1724 vs Kadavy 1761
Kadavy
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 40% vs Kadavy 80%
Kadavy
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 40% vs Kadavy 60%
Kadavy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -2 · Kadavy +3
Kadavy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Kadavy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 3.00 / Kadavy 1.363
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Kadavy)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13253995
Cerny3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 52 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back16% 10 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Kadavy1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 74 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it85% 57 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny4wins
AwayKadavy6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKadavy leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny100%4 of 4
AwayKadavy100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny4Kadavy6n = 10Kadavy took 6 of 10
S2Cerny3Kadavy7n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S3Cerny4Kadavy6n = 10Kadavy took 6 of 10
S4Cerny3Kadavy3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyKadavyC − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.836.8−5.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyKadavyBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 868 vs 198 / 34158.2%58.1%505 / 868 vs 198 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyCerny 3.00/Kadavy 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 13:25M. Cerny196490O. Kadavy331111113
WSep 27 · 12:55M. Cerny4111811113O. Kadavy31811841
LSep 25 · 10:29M. Cerny40131111502O. Kadavy54158911113
LSep 25 · 08:25M. Cerny356101181O. Kadavy4111127113
WSep 24 · 14:55M. Cerny4311911123O. Kadavy315115101
LSep 17 · 18:05M. Cerny2351170O. Kadavy351113113
LSep 17 · 14:55M. Cerny93420O. Kadavy331111113
WSep 14 · 22:15M. Cerny4311119123O. Kadavy379711101
LSep 14 · 21:25M. Cerny156180O. Kadavy331111113
WSep 11 · 12:50M. Cerny50111189113O. Kadavy4068111142
M. Cerny10
LOct 6 · 22:05P. Vanek1.8011116113M. Cerny1.91941171LOct 6 · 19:55P. Vanek2.10111211113M. Cerny1.67414961LOct 6 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.83911811113M. Cerny1.8311711972WOct 4 · 18:10D. Vesecky1.906611151M. Cerny1.8011114173WOct 4 · 17:25M. Cerny3.00118119113D. Vesecky1.3621111152LOct 4 · 15:55P. Vanek2.001112113M. Cerny1.7371060LOct 4 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.834111110113M. Cerny1.8311951282WOct 2 · 13:55P. Dvorak2.008570M. Cerny1.731111113LOct 2 · 13:25M. Cerny1.678640D. Vesecky2.101111113LOct 2 · 11:55P. Dvorak2.386121111113M. Cerny1.5311148782
O. Kadavy10
WOct 6 · 22:35O. Kadavy1.73111113113D. Bochnak2.00961571WOct 6 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.73101111113D. Bochnak2.00126791WOct 6 · 18:55P. Vanek2.385770O. Kadavy1.531111113WOct 4 · 10:13F. Strejc1.91613561O. Kadavy1.80111111113LOct 4 · 08:55O. Kadavy1.913850M. Stusek1.801111113WOct 4 · 07:55O. Kadavy1.83112711123F. Strejc1.83911115102LOct 4 · 06:55O. Kadavy1.831171081V. Benak1.8371112113LOct 1 · 18:30F. Strejc1.8011911113O. Kadavy1.90911951WOct 1 · 16:55V. Benak1.73711581O. Kadavy2.0011511113LOct 1 · 16:25F. Strejc2.0081112113O. Kadavy1.731161071
Upcoming Matches
M. Cerny
O. Kadavy
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