TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Evzen Ondracek vs Ladislav Tuma 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811411119911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:25 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Tuma to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingEvzen Ondracek above · Ladislav Tuma below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Ladislav Tuma at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Evzen Ondracek 23–14 Ladislav Tuma Ladislav Tuma has won 14 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2554.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tuma
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-14 in 37
Ondracek
Wrong
gap of 9 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ondracek 1408 vs Tuma 1432
Tuma
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ondracek 40% vs Tuma 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ondracek 60% vs Tuma 40%
Ondracek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ondracek -2 · Tuma -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Tuma) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOndracek 1.909 / Tuma 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tuma)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261456
Ondracek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 18 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back18% 4 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Tuma1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 50 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOndracek4wins
AwayTuma6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTuma leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOndracek60%3 of 5
AwayTuma80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ondracek5Tuma5n = 10split evenly
S2Ondracek6Tuma4n = 10Ondracek took 6 of 10
S3Ondracek4Tuma6n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S4Ondracek3Tuma4n = 7Tuma took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOndracekTumaO − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.635.7−1.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOndracekTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 214 vs 241 / 47850.5%50.4%108 / 214 vs 241 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TumaOndracek 1.91/Tuma 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 14:00E. Ondracek4071111562L. Tuma46119411113
LSep 14 · 14:00E. Ondracek187650L. Tuma331111113
LAug 27 · 16:59E. Ondracek189180L. Tuma331111113
WAug 27 · 14:00E. Ondracek4111811113L. Tuma33911581
LApr 16 · 14:00E. Ondracek3911112782L. Tuma49791111113
WApr 1 · 16:49E. Ondracek4281111123L. Tuma361178101
LApr 1 · 15:45E. Ondracek381198101L. Tuma4061111123
LMar 19 · 14:30E. Ondracek32811761L. Tuma3311011113
WJan 20 · 17:30E. Ondracek45111112113L. Tuma33961441
WJan 20 · 15:30E. Ondracek331111113L. Tuma218490
E. Ondracek10
LOct 8 · 13:30E. Ondracek1.678560K. Polak2.101111113LOct 2 · 16:43E. Ondracek7.00111110J. Blazek1.081113133LOct 2 · 16:30E. Ondracek2.101110J. Blazek1.6711132WOct 2 · 15:30J. Blazek2.3841112862E. Ondracek1.531191011113WOct 2 · 15:00E. Ondracek1.801111113J. Hanacek1.919890LOct 2 · 14:00E. Ondracek1.9171111562L. Tuma1.80119411113WSep 21 · 16:31P. Fiser2.25511461E. Ondracek1.5711811113LSep 21 · 15:30E. Ondracek1.4431250P. Fiser2.631114113WSep 21 · 14:30E. Ondracek1.83911137123K. Polak1.831181111102WSep 21 · 13:30E. Ondracek1.611111113M. Melisek2.208860
L. Tuma10
LOct 8 · 14:00J. Mejzlik1.8311117123L. Tuma1.838611101WOct 2 · 16:59J. Hanacek1.7391181192L. Tuma2.00114118113LOct 2 · 16:00L. Tuma1.8081190J. Hanacek1.911113113LOct 2 · 14:30J. Blazek3.2511811113L. Tuma1.33811151WOct 2 · 14:00E. Ondracek1.9171111562L. Tuma1.80119411113LSep 29 · 16:28L. Tuma2.25116561K. Farsky1.5771111113WSep 29 · 15:30K. Farsky1.539101161L. Tuma2.3811125113WSep 29 · 15:00L. Tuma1.808111111113K. Polak1.9111681362LSep 29 · 14:00L. Tuma1.67135391P. Abraham2.10111111113LSep 24 · 16:28L. Tuma1.579101191P. Abraham2.2511126113
Upcoming Matches
E. Ondracek
Nothing scheduled
L. Tuma
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