TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatolii Lievshin vs Oleksandr Kolbasenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71161117151113––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:57 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Kolbasenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Oleksandr Kolbasenko @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingAnatolii Lievshin above · Oleksandr Kolbasenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 17-15
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 91 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Oleksandr Kolbasenko at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Lievshin 5–7 Oleksandr Kolbasenko Anatolii Lievshin has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:5754.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kolbasenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Kolbasenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lievshin 1732 vs Kolbasenko 1686
Lievshin
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lievshin 60% vs Kolbasenko 40%
Lievshin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lievshin 60% vs Kolbasenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lievshin -2 · Kolbasenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kolbasenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbasenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLievshin 2.10 / Kolbasenko 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolbasenko)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260829
Lievshin2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 05)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 46 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back14% 5 of 37
Kolbasenko1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 69 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it82% 50 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLievshin4wins
AwayKolbasenko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolbasenko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLievshinn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKolbasenko55.6%5 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lievshin1Kolbasenko9n = 10Kolbasenko took 9 of 10
S2Lievshin2Kolbasenko8n = 10Kolbasenko took 8 of 10
S3Lievshin5Kolbasenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Lievshin5Kolbasenko2n = 7Lievshin took 5 of 7
S5Lievshin3Kolbasenko1n = 4Lievshin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLievshinKolbasenkoL − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match36.040.8−4.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLievshinKolbasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 379 vs 177 / 33655.9%52.7%212 / 379 vs 177 / 336Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolbasenkoLievshin 2.10/Kolbasenko 1.67
Hit
What we said
54%
Kolbasenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Kolbasenko @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
1–3
Kolbasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 17:00A. Lievshin4481181162O. Kolbasenko42115114113
WSep 30 · 07:20A. Lievshin51971112123O. Kolbasenko491111710102
WSep 23 · 08:50A. Lievshin4381112123O. Kolbasenko3911810101
LSep 21 · 15:40A. Lievshin147250O. Kolbasenko331111113
WSep 16 · 05:35A. Lievshin474101111113O. Kolbasenko4711129872
LSep 14 · 14:10A. Lievshin2888120O. Kolbasenko361111143
LSep 8 · 11:40A. Lievshin3711511101O. Kolbasenko4591113123
LSep 7 · 14:10A. Lievshin196850O. Kolbasenko331111113
LAug 26 · 09:20A. Lievshin31671171O. Kolbasenko3911116113
WAug 24 · 15:40A. Lievshin46671111113O. Kolbasenko4511118692
A. Lievshin10
WOct 8 · 13:30V. Voronenko2.10101181182A. Lievshin1.67126117113LOct 5 · 19:00A. Lievshin1.5399100A. Yurkov2.381111123LOct 5 · 17:00O. Kolbasenko1.73115114113A. Lievshin2.0081181162WOct 5 · 15:00P. Plakushchyi3.40761121A. Lievshin1.3011116113WOct 5 · 14:00A. Lievshin1.331112143A. Hrabskyi3.25610120WOct 5 · 13:00V. Marushchak1.501012511102A. Lievshin2.501210115123LOct 2 · 17:40V. Marushchak1.5331111113A. Lievshin2.38115341WOct 2 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.331311113A. Hrabskyi3.2511570LOct 2 · 14:10V. Savoliuk1.8311115113A. Lievshin1.83781171WOct 2 · 11:10O. Seliuchenko2.3811511572A. Lievshin1.53711911113
O. Kolbasenko10
LOct 5 · 18:00P. Plakushchyi3.7511117113O. Kolbasenko1.25951161WOct 5 · 17:00O. Kolbasenko1.73115114113A. Lievshin2.0081181162WOct 5 · 16:00O. Kolbasenko1.44911117113A. Hrabskyi2.6311591192LOct 5 · 14:30O. Kolbasenko2.75111195112V. Marushchak1.40681111133LOct 5 · 12:30O. Kolbasenko1.9111129692A. Yurkov1.805101111113LSep 30 · 11:50O. Kolbasenko2.105570A. Yurkov1.671111113WSep 30 · 10:20O. Kolbasenko1.4411512113A. Hrabskyi2.636111091WSep 30 · 08:50O. Kolbasenko1.2211412113P. Plakushchyi4.007111061LSep 30 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko1.531111710102A. Lievshin2.38971112123WSep 30 · 05:50O. Kolbasenko1.801111113M. Deineha1.917350
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