TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Kolbasenko vs Vitalii S Marushchak 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161189115111113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:17 and never touched: 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Kolbasenko above · Vitalii S Marushchak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 96 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 70.7%
96 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolbasenko 13–31 Vitalii S Marushchak Oleksandr Kolbasenko has won 13 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1770.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 0.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-31 in 44
Marushchak
Correct
gap of 18 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbasenko 1687 vs Marushchak 1820
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbasenko 40% vs Marushchak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbasenko 40% vs Marushchak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbasenko -2 · Marushchak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Marushchak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbasenko 2.75 / Marushchak 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Marushchak)-0.7pp
Setka Cup · #13245471
Kolbasenko2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 20 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Marushchak1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 86 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it98% 53 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it83% 69 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbasenko2wins
AwayMarushchak8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbasenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayMarushchak100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbasenko3Marushchak7n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S2Kolbasenko1Marushchak9n = 10Marushchak took 9 of 10
S3Kolbasenko3Marushchak7n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S4Kolbasenko0Marushchak4n = 4Marushchak took 4 of 4
S5Kolbasenko2Marushchak1n = 3Kolbasenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbasenkoMarushchakK − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.839.7−9.9per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbasenkoMarushchakBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 332 vs 326 / 65252.7%50%175 / 332 vs 326 / 652Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakKolbasenko 2.75/Marushchak 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 11:05O. Kolbasenko186750V. Marushchak331111113
LSep 14 · 15:10O. Kolbasenko185580V. Marushchak331111113
LSep 8 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko105140V. Marushchak331111113
WSep 7 · 13:10O. Kolbasenko48117117123V. Marushchak46811611102
WAug 24 · 13:10O. Kolbasenko44115116113V. Marushchak4491161172
LAug 17 · 13:10O. Kolbasenko3812112492V. Marushchak521091111113
LAug 10 · 15:10O. Kolbasenko4581215101V. Marushchak50111413123
LAug 3 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko227870V. Marushchak331111113
LJul 6 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko2491230V. Marushchak361114113
LJun 30 · 14:30O. Kolbasenko311110100V. Marushchak371312123
O. Kolbasenko10
LOct 5 · 12:30O. Kolbasenko1.9111129692A. Yurkov1.805101111113LSep 30 · 11:50O. Kolbasenko2.105570A. Yurkov1.671111113WSep 30 · 10:20O. Kolbasenko1.4411512113A. Hrabskyi2.636111091WSep 30 · 08:50O. Kolbasenko1.2211412113P. Plakushchyi4.007111061LSep 30 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko1.531111710102A. Lievshin2.38971112123WSep 30 · 05:50O. Kolbasenko1.801111113M. Deineha1.917350LSep 23 · 11:50O. Kolbasenko1.801110291V. Chornobab1.9181211113LSep 23 · 10:20O. Kolbasenko1.831110371O. Belskyi1.8371211113LSep 23 · 08:50O. Kolbasenko1.4011810101A. Lievshin2.7581112123WSep 23 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko2.251411113A. Yurkov1.5712770
V. Marushchak10
LOct 5 · 15:30V. Marushchak1.808911111A. Yurkov1.9111115133LOct 5 · 13:00V. Marushchak1.501012511102A. Lievshin2.501210115123WOct 2 · 17:40V. Marushchak1.5331111113A. Lievshin2.38115341WOct 2 · 15:40O. Seliuchenko2.6381290V. Marushchak1.441114103LOct 2 · 12:40V. Marushchak1.50101070A. Hrabskyi2.501212113LSep 29 · 17:23A. Yurkov1.911091111113V. Marushchak1.8012116692WSep 29 · 16:30V. Marushchak1.50661111113A. Lievshin2.5011118972WSep 29 · 15:30V. Marushchak1.571311113A. Hrabskyi2.2511290WSep 29 · 14:00P. Plakushchyi1.8391090V. Marushchak1.831112113LSep 29 · 13:00V. Marushchak1.8076111162A. Yurkov1.91111166113
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