TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Kolbasenko vs Artem Yurkov 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:45 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeArtem Yurkov to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Kolbasenko above · Artem Yurkov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 50 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Artem Yurkov at 56.2%
50 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolbasenko 40–55 Artem Yurkov Oleksandr Kolbasenko has won 40 of their 95 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4556.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Yurkov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
40-55 in 95
Yurkov
Correct
gap of 15 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbasenko 1713 vs Yurkov 1675
Kolbasenko
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbasenko 60% vs Yurkov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbasenko 50% vs Yurkov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbasenko +2 · Yurkov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Yurkov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbasenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbasenko 2.10 / Yurkov 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Yurkov)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218815
Kolbasenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog40% won 21 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Yurkov1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 188 of 322
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it74% 128 of 174
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbasenko5wins
AwayYurkov5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbasenko60%3 of 5
AwayYurkov60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbasenko5Yurkov5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolbasenko7Yurkov3n = 10Kolbasenko took 7 of 10
S3Kolbasenko6Yurkov4n = 10Kolbasenko took 6 of 10
S4Kolbasenko3Yurkov4n = 7Yurkov took 4 of 7
S5Kolbasenko2Yurkov3n = 5Yurkov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbasenkoYurkovK − YBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.738.4+1.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbasenkoYurkovBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 335 vs 573 / 97153.1%59%178 / 335 vs 573 / 971Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
YurkovKolbasenko 2.10/Yurkov 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Yurkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Yurkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko361411113A. Yurkov2612770
WSep 14 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko331111113A. Yurkov229760
WSep 8 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko47811611113A. Yurkov3911711552
WSep 7 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko52811139113A. Yurkov39116111102
LAug 26 · 12:20O. Kolbasenko4381141192A. Yurkov45114118113
LAug 24 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko4811891282A. Yurkov518111110113
WAug 17 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko361312113A. Yurkov29111080
LAug 10 · 12:10O. Kolbasenko33951271A. Yurkov43111110113
LAug 3 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko3611811152A. Yurkov49711911113
LJul 27 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko33811861A. Yurkov4111811113
O. Kolbasenko10
WSep 30 · 10:20O. Kolbasenko1.4411512113A. Hrabskyi2.636111091WSep 30 · 08:50O. Kolbasenko1.2211412113P. Plakushchyi4.007111061LSep 30 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko1.531111710102A. Lievshin2.38971112123WSep 30 · 05:50O. Kolbasenko1.801111113M. Deineha1.917350LSep 23 · 11:50O. Kolbasenko1.801110291V. Chornobab1.9181211113LSep 23 · 10:20O. Kolbasenko1.831110371O. Belskyi1.8371211113LSep 23 · 08:50O. Kolbasenko1.4011810101A. Lievshin2.7581112123WSep 23 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko2.251411113A. Yurkov1.5712770WSep 23 · 05:50O. Kolbasenko1.501111113A. Hrabskyi2.506280LSep 21 · 16:40I. Fedoryshyn2.2041111113O. Kolbasenko1.61115781
A. Yurkov10
LSep 30 · 10:50A. Yurkov1.361011115112P. Plakushchyi3.00126211133WSep 30 · 09:50A. Yurkov1.4010111110113M. Deineha2.7512671262WSep 30 · 08:20A. Yurkov1.8091111113A. Hrabskyi1.91118891LSep 30 · 06:20A. Yurkov2.25891161A. Lievshin1.5711118113WSep 29 · 17:23A. Yurkov1.911091111113V. Marushchak1.8012116692LSep 29 · 16:00P. Plakushchyi3.25111165113A. Yurkov1.3356111182WSep 29 · 14:30A. Hrabskyi2.00811911112A. Yurkov1.73117117133WSep 29 · 13:00V. Marushchak1.8076111162A. Yurkov1.91111166113LSep 29 · 12:00A. Lievshin1.671111113A. Yurkov2.105730LSep 23 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko2.251411113A. Yurkov1.5712770
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