TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Plakushchyi vs Oleksandr Kolbasenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119115711116––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:53 and never touched: 77.0% is still 77.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Kolbasenko to win
77.0%
77.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Oleksandr Kolbasenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Oleksandr Kolbasenko at 77.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 1–4 Oleksandr Kolbasenko Pavel Plakushchyi has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5377.0%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 3.0pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kolbasenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Kolbasenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1595 vs Kolbasenko 1701
Kolbasenko
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 20% vs Kolbasenko 40%
Kolbasenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 40% vs Kolbasenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi -3 · Kolbasenko +2
Plakushchyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Kolbasenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbasenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 3.75 / Kolbasenko 1.25
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Kolbasenko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245408
Plakushchyi3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 86 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 90
Kolbasenko1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 67 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it82% 49 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePlakushchyi1wins
AwayKolbasenko4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKolbasenko leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlakushchyi33.3%1 of 3
AwayKolbasenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plakushchyi3Kolbasenko2n = 5Plakushchyi took 3 of 5
S2Plakushchyi3Kolbasenko2n = 5Plakushchyi took 3 of 5
S3Plakushchyi0Kolbasenko5n = 5Kolbasenko took 5 of 5
S4Plakushchyi1Kolbasenko4n = 5Kolbasenko took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiKolbasenkoP − KBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match35.845.0−9.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiKolbasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime333 / 750 vs 177 / 33544.4%52.8%333 / 750 vs 177 / 335Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolbasenkoPlakushchyi 3.75/Kolbasenko 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77%
Kolbasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 30 · 08:50P. Plakushchyi347111061O. Kolbasenko3811412113
LSep 7 · 17:10P. Plakushchyi30137641O. Kolbasenko44111111113
LJun 26 · 14:40P. Plakushchyi29511491O. Kolbasenko3811511113
LMay 6 · 11:18P. Plakushchyi3611471132O. Kolbasenko51911119113
WMay 6 · 06:50P. Plakushchyi50131466113O. Kolbasenko541112111192
P. Plakushchyi10
LOct 5 · 16:30P. Plakushchyi1.8011114952V. Marushchak1.91571111113LOct 5 · 15:00P. Plakushchyi3.40761121A. Lievshin1.3011116113LOct 5 · 13:30P. Plakushchyi2.631212641A. Yurkov1.44141011113WOct 5 · 12:00P. Plakushchyi1.91121271123A. Hrabskyi1.8010101111102LOct 4 · 01:55Y. Kryvorotko1.361111113P. Plakushchyi3.008750LOct 4 · 00:25P. Plakushchyi1.61481141O. Kovalchuk2.2011119113LOct 3 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi2.254950A. Chepurnyi1.571111113WOct 3 · 21:25P. Plakushchyi1.7311811113O. Mishchenko2.00911641WOct 2 · 18:23O. Kovalchuk2.2571012101P. Plakushchyi1.57111210123WOct 2 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.57116117103O. Kovalchuk2.2551181172
O. Kolbasenko10
WOct 5 · 17:00O. Kolbasenko1.73115114113A. Lievshin2.0081181162WOct 5 · 16:00O. Kolbasenko1.44911117113A. Hrabskyi2.6311591192LOct 5 · 14:30O. Kolbasenko2.75111195112V. Marushchak1.40681111133LOct 5 · 12:30O. Kolbasenko1.9111129692A. Yurkov1.805101111113LSep 30 · 11:50O. Kolbasenko2.105570A. Yurkov1.671111113WSep 30 · 10:20O. Kolbasenko1.4411512113A. Hrabskyi2.636111091WSep 30 · 08:50O. Kolbasenko1.2211412113P. Plakushchyi4.007111061LSep 30 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko1.531111710102A. Lievshin2.38971112123WSep 30 · 05:50O. Kolbasenko1.801111113M. Deineha1.917350LSep 23 · 11:50O. Kolbasenko1.801110291V. Chornobab1.9181211113
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