TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Kolbasenko vs Anatolii Lievshin 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118511118411116
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:47 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Kolbasenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Kolbasenko above · Anatolii Lievshin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 86 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Oleksandr Kolbasenko at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolbasenko 7–5 Anatolii Lievshin Anatolii Lievshin has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:4754.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolbasenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Kolbasenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbasenko 1701 vs Lievshin 1746
Lievshin
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbasenko 40% vs Lievshin 80%
Lievshin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbasenko 40% vs Lievshin 70%
Lievshin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbasenko +1 · Lievshin +3
Lievshin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kolbasenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lievshin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbasenko 1.727 / Lievshin 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolbasenko)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245447
Kolbasenko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 67 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it82% 49 of 60
Lievshin2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 45 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back14% 5 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbasenko6wins
AwayLievshin4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolbasenko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbasenko55.6%5 of 9
AwayLievshinn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbasenko9Lievshin1n = 10Kolbasenko took 9 of 10
S2Kolbasenko8Lievshin2n = 10Kolbasenko took 8 of 10
S3Kolbasenko5Lievshin5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolbasenko2Lievshin5n = 7Lievshin took 5 of 7
S5Kolbasenko1Lievshin3n = 4Lievshin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbasenkoLievshinK − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.836.0+4.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbasenkoLievshinBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 335 vs 212 / 37852.8%56.1%177 / 335 vs 212 / 378Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolbasenkoKolbasenko 1.73/Lievshin 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kolbasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolbasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 17:00O. Kolbasenko42115114113A. Lievshin4481181162
LSep 30 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko491111710102A. Lievshin51971112123
LSep 23 · 08:50O. Kolbasenko3911810101A. Lievshin4381112123
WSep 21 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko331111113A. Lievshin147250
LSep 16 · 05:35O. Kolbasenko4711129872A. Lievshin474101111113
WSep 14 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko361111143A. Lievshin2888120
WSep 8 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko4591113123A. Lievshin3711511101
WSep 7 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko331111113A. Lievshin196850
WAug 26 · 09:20O. Kolbasenko3911116113A. Lievshin31671171
LAug 24 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko4511118692A. Lievshin46671111113
O. Kolbasenko10
LOct 5 · 18:00P. Plakushchyi3.7511117113O. Kolbasenko1.25951161WOct 5 · 16:00O. Kolbasenko1.44911117113A. Hrabskyi2.6311591192LOct 5 · 14:30O. Kolbasenko2.75111195112V. Marushchak1.40681111133LOct 5 · 12:30O. Kolbasenko1.9111129692A. Yurkov1.805101111113LSep 30 · 11:50O. Kolbasenko2.105570A. Yurkov1.671111113WSep 30 · 10:20O. Kolbasenko1.4411512113A. Hrabskyi2.636111091WSep 30 · 08:50O. Kolbasenko1.2211412113P. Plakushchyi4.007111061LSep 30 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko1.531111710102A. Lievshin2.38971112123WSep 30 · 05:50O. Kolbasenko1.801111113M. Deineha1.917350LSep 23 · 11:50O. Kolbasenko1.801110291V. Chornobab1.9181211113
A. Lievshin10
WOct 5 · 15:00P. Plakushchyi3.40761121A. Lievshin1.3011116113WOct 5 · 14:00A. Lievshin1.331112143A. Hrabskyi3.25610120WOct 5 · 13:00V. Marushchak1.501012511102A. Lievshin2.501210115123LOct 2 · 17:40V. Marushchak1.5331111113A. Lievshin2.38115341WOct 2 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.331311113A. Hrabskyi3.2511570LOct 2 · 14:10V. Savoliuk1.8311115113A. Lievshin1.83781171WOct 2 · 11:10O. Seliuchenko2.3811511572A. Lievshin1.53711911113WSep 30 · 12:50P. Plakushchyi2.752770A. Lievshin1.401111113WSep 30 · 11:20A. Lievshin1.406151111113M. Deineha2.7511175662WSep 30 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko1.531111710102A. Lievshin2.38971112123
Upcoming Matches
O. Kolbasenko
Nothing scheduled
A. Lievshin
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