TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Plakushchyi vs Anatolii Lievshin 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711611116211––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched: 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Lievshin to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Anatolii Lievshin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 65 set 4, 2-11 · our read held Anatolii Lievshin at 76.7%
65 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 2–7 Anatolii Lievshin Pavel Plakushchyi has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5776.7%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 0.2pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Lievshin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Lievshin
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1608 vs Lievshin 1752
Lievshin
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 20% vs Lievshin 60%
Lievshin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 50% vs Lievshin 70%
Lievshin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi -1 · Lievshin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Lievshin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lievshin form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 3.40 / Lievshin 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Lievshin)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13245496
Plakushchyi3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 86 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 90
Lievshin1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 140 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it95% 71 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it85% 109 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePlakushchyi2wins
AwayLievshin7wins
3 of 9 to a deciderLievshin leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlakushchyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLievshin100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plakushchyi2Lievshin7n = 9Lievshin took 7 of 9
S2Plakushchyi3Lievshin6n = 9Lievshin took 6 of 9
S3Plakushchyi3Lievshin6n = 9Lievshin took 6 of 9
S4Plakushchyi0Lievshin5n = 5Lievshin took 5 of 5
S5Plakushchyi2Lievshin1n = 3Plakushchyi took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away444%
These 9 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiLievshinP − LBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match30.338.7−8.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiLievshinBasisWin rate · lifetime333 / 748 vs 211 / 37644.5%56.1%333 / 748 vs 211 / 376Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LievshinPlakushchyi 3.40/Lievshin 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Lievshin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lievshin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 30 · 12:50P. Plakushchyi162770A. Lievshin331111113
LSep 29 · 17:53P. Plakushchyi197660A. Lievshin331111113
WSep 29 · 15:00P. Plakushchyi47111168113A. Lievshin4358111182
LSep 28 · 17:00P. Plakushchyi45711121052A. Lievshin531191012113
LSep 25 · 17:40P. Plakushchyi2381140A. Lievshin351113113
LSep 7 · 16:10P. Plakushchyi326131211A. Lievshin47111114113
WAug 31 · 16:10P. Plakushchyi50119118113A. Lievshin3261131112
LAug 28 · 14:10P. Plakushchyi28731171A. Lievshin3911116113
LJul 31 · 16:40P. Plakushchyi134630A. Lievshin331111113
P. Plakushchyi10
LOct 5 · 13:30P. Plakushchyi2.631212641A. Yurkov1.44141011113WOct 5 · 12:00P. Plakushchyi1.91121271123A. Hrabskyi1.8010101111102LOct 4 · 01:55Y. Kryvorotko1.361111113P. Plakushchyi3.008750LOct 4 · 00:25P. Plakushchyi1.61481141O. Kovalchuk2.2011119113LOct 3 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi2.254950A. Chepurnyi1.571111113WOct 3 · 21:25P. Plakushchyi1.7311811113O. Mishchenko2.00911641WOct 2 · 18:23O. Kovalchuk2.2571012101P. Plakushchyi1.57111210123WOct 2 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.57116117103O. Kovalchuk2.2551181172WOct 2 · 16:25E. Rubtsov2.63461181P. Plakushchyi1.4411117113LOct 2 · 15:25A. Chepurnyi1.5711911113P. Plakushchyi2.25311571
A. Lievshin10
WOct 5 · 14:00A. Lievshin1.331112143A. Hrabskyi3.25610120WOct 5 · 13:00V. Marushchak1.501012511102A. Lievshin2.501210115123LOct 2 · 17:40V. Marushchak1.5331111113A. Lievshin2.38115341WOct 2 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.331311113A. Hrabskyi3.2511570LOct 2 · 14:10V. Savoliuk1.8311115113A. Lievshin1.83781171WOct 2 · 11:10O. Seliuchenko2.3811511572A. Lievshin1.53711911113WSep 30 · 12:50P. Plakushchyi2.752770A. Lievshin1.401111113WSep 30 · 11:20A. Lievshin1.406151111113M. Deineha2.7511175662LSep 30 · 09:20A. Hrabskyi3.251110611143A. Lievshin1.33612119122WSep 30 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko1.531111710102A. Lievshin2.38971112123
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