TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Plakushchyi vs Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411811119411––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:16 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 69 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 58.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 74–37 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 37 of their 111 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:1658.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Plakushchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
74-37 in 111
Plakushchyi
Wrong
gap of 37 in 111, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1625 vs Kovalchuk 1582
Plakushchyi
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 80% vs Kovalchuk 20%
Plakushchyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 50% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi -1 · Kovalchuk -4
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Plakushchyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 1.615 / Kovalchuk 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Plakushchyi)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234481
Plakushchyi1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 57 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Kovalchuk2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 80 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back16% 21 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlakushchyi7wins
AwayKovalchuk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlakushchyi100%5 of 5
AwayKovalchuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plakushchyi5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Plakushchyi7Kovalchuk3n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S3Plakushchyi6Kovalchuk4n = 10Plakushchyi took 6 of 10
S4Plakushchyi2Kovalchuk3n = 5Kovalchuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiKovalchukP − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.832.9+1.9per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 744 vs 326 / 77344.6%42.2%332 / 744 vs 326 / 773Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiPlakushchyi 1.61/Kovalchuk 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 2 · 18:23P. Plakushchyi45111210123O. Kovalchuk3971012101
LSep 23 · 15:05P. Plakushchyi2292110O. Kovalchuk351111133
WSep 22 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi361411113O. Kovalchuk2712870
LSep 17 · 00:55P. Plakushchyi33911761O. Kovalchuk3911611113
WSep 16 · 01:55P. Plakushchyi351113113O. Kovalchuk1931150
WSep 10 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi331111113O. Kovalchuk228680
LSep 9 · 00:55P. Plakushchyi174760O. Kovalchuk331111113
WSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi3961111113O. Kovalchuk34118781
WSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi539111111113O. Kovalchuk4811981372
P. Plakushchyi10
LOct 3 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi2.254950A. Chepurnyi1.571111113WOct 3 · 21:25P. Plakushchyi1.7311811113O. Mishchenko2.00911641WOct 2 · 18:23O. Kovalchuk2.2571012101P. Plakushchyi1.57111210123WOct 2 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.57116117103O. Kovalchuk2.2551181172WOct 2 · 16:25E. Rubtsov2.63461181P. Plakushchyi1.4411117113LOct 2 · 15:25A. Chepurnyi1.5711911113P. Plakushchyi2.25311571LOct 2 · 13:55O. Mishchenko2.001111113P. Plakushchyi1.739890LSep 30 · 12:50P. Plakushchyi2.752770A. Lievshin1.401111113WSep 30 · 10:50A. Yurkov1.361011115112P. Plakushchyi3.00126211133LSep 30 · 08:50O. Kolbasenko1.2211412113P. Plakushchyi4.007111061
O. Kovalchuk10
LOct 4 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk2.2085111192O. Mishchenko1.61111169113LOct 3 · 23:25Y. Kryvorotko1.131111143O. Kovalchuk5.5097120LOct 3 · 21:55A. Chepurnyi1.3310111112113O. Kovalchuk3.2512551442LOct 2 · 18:23O. Kovalchuk2.2571012101P. Plakushchyi1.57111210123LOct 2 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.57116117103O. Kovalchuk2.2551181172WOct 2 · 15:55O. Mishchenko1.611091161O. Kovalchuk2.2012119113LOct 2 · 14:25A. Chepurnyi1.3611511123O. Kovalchuk3.005114101WOct 2 · 13:25E. Rubtsov1.9113840O. Kovalchuk1.801511113WOct 1 · 04:25E. Rubtsov1.9111331192O. Kovalchuk1.80911119113WOct 1 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk2.1011511113O. Mishchenko1.67511451
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