TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vojtech Cerny vs Petr Osvald 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111161188111012
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 14
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:14 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Osvald to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Cerny above · Petr Osvald below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 96 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Petr Osvald at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Cerny 0–1 Petr Osvald Vojtech Cerny has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1454.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1539 vs Osvald 1632
Osvald
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 40% vs Osvald 100%
Osvald
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 30% vs Osvald 100%
Osvald
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +2 · Osvald +14
Osvald
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Osvald) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osvald form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.80 / Osvald 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Osvald)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13258311
Cerny1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 26 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Osvald1.91
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 03)
Won last 14
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog44% won 28 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCerny0wins
AwayOsvald1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderOsvald leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricCernyOsvaldC − OBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match48.048.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyOsvaldBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 116 vs 125 / 24348.3%51.4%56 / 116 vs 125 / 243Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsvaldCerny 1.80/Osvald 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Osvald · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Osvald won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 8 · 06:30V. Cerny48811118102P. Osvald48116811123
V. Cerny10
LOct 8 · 07:00M. Blejchar2.75231111113V. Cerny1.4011114912WOct 6 · 12:59V. Cerny1.611111113J. Levicky2.204730WOct 6 · 12:30V. Cerny1.8391111113J. Levicky1.83115641LOct 6 · 11:00V. Cerny2.204131451S. Byrtus1.61111512113LOct 6 · 10:00M. Heczko1.4411911113V. Cerny2.63011291LOct 6 · 08:59J. Levicky1.83811118113V. Cerny1.8311491182WOct 6 · 08:00J. Levicky1.61117791V. Cerny2.2061111113LOct 6 · 07:00P. Danko1.8391111113V. Cerny1.83116891LOct 6 · 06:30V. Cerny2.508470M. Heczko1.501111113LSep 20 · 21:28D. Oborny2.0011511113V. Cerny1.73411851
P. Osvald10
LOct 8 · 07:30P. Osvald1.83311119112P. Chovanec1.83119411133WOct 3 · 13:30P. Osvald1.4711611113P. Bajtek2.40811571WOct 3 · 12:00P. Osvald1.6113611113P. Bajtek2.201111491WOct 3 · 11:30M. Kowolowski3.001171341P. Osvald1.36131111113WOct 3 · 10:00P. Osvald1.7371111113P. Hanel2.00116861WOct 1 · 09:30P. Osvald1.731111113D. Machander2.005780WOct 1 · 08:30P. Osvald1.801114113P. Smetka1.9161240WOct 1 · 07:00P. Osvald2.201111811113P. Chovanec1.6129111362WOct 1 · 06:00D. Machander1.8361171162P. Osvald1.83119119113WSep 27 · 13:30P. Osvald1.3511913133M. Kowolowski2.9071111111
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