TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Osvald vs Patrik Hanel 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116118116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:58 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timePetr Osvald to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Osvald above · Patrik Hanel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Petr Osvald at 54.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Petr Osvald 1–1 Patrik Hanel Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5854.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Osvald
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Osvald 1589 vs Hanel 1503
Osvald
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osvald 100% vs Hanel 40%
Osvald
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osvald 100% vs Hanel 40%
Osvald
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osvald +10 · Hanel -1
Osvald
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Osvald) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osvald form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsvald 1.727 / Hanel 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Osvald)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13232283
Osvald1.73
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 10
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite64% won 40 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it87% 34 of 39
Hanel2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 27 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOsvald1wins
AwayHanel1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricOsvaldHanelO − HBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match40.539.5+1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsvaldHanelBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 238 vs 62 / 12450.4%50%120 / 238 vs 62 / 124Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsvaldOsvald 1.73/Hanel 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Osvald · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Osvald won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 19 · 09:30P. Osvald3711511732P. Hanel45611611113
WSep 19 · 08:30P. Osvald442211113P. Hanel3420680
P. Osvald10
WOct 1 · 09:30P. Osvald1.731111113D. Machander2.005780WOct 1 · 08:30P. Osvald1.801114113P. Smetka1.9161240WOct 1 · 07:00P. Osvald2.201111811113P. Chovanec1.6129111362WOct 1 · 06:00D. Machander1.8361171162P. Osvald1.83119119113WSep 27 · 13:30P. Osvald1.3511913133M. Kowolowski2.9071111111WSep 27 · 12:00P. Osvald1.8012711113M. Blejchar1.911011251WSep 27 · 11:30M. Kowolowski2.5010820P. Osvald1.501211113WSep 27 · 10:00P. Osvald1.83111211113P. Bajtek1.83814561WSep 24 · 08:58P. Osvald1.731111113T. Milota2.006910WSep 24 · 08:30P. Osvald2.501111123T. Milota1.5074100
P. Hanel10
LSep 29 · 21:00P. Hanel2.0066111192I. Taichman1.73111162113WSep 29 · 20:00P. Hanel1.831111123M. Kowolowski1.8394100LSep 29 · 19:30T. Milota1.919111111113P. Hanel1.8011813422LSep 29 · 18:00P. Hanel1.91961161I. Taichman1.8011115113WSep 20 · 13:02T. Milkov1.91143871P. Hanel1.80121111103LSep 20 · 12:00P. Hanel1.7351191162M. Blejchar2.00119114113WSep 20 · 11:30T. Milkov1.831210128112P. Hanel1.8310121011133LSep 20 · 10:00P. Hanel2.50135981R. Adam1.50111111113WSep 19 · 09:30P. Osvald1.8011511732P. Hanel1.90611611113LSep 19 · 08:30P. Hanel1.8320680P. Osvald1.832211113
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